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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (35800)	12/1/2000 7:02:52 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I wanted to follow up that disconnected market multiples don't just occur in technology stocks. The mentality of loading up for recession type stocks (smokes, drinks, food, drugs, energy, etc...) has created some interesting 'vulnerabililties'. As an investor, one would factor in the growth rate to calculate to see if an equity in the smokes, drinks, eats, fuels department is 'connected' or 'disconnected' with reality. Let's take a look at a few of them that would qualify as kings in their sectors. Drink Coca-Cola has a P/E of 82. and they grew their revenues at 4.1% annualized over the past 5 years. Earnings were grown at -.1% annualized over the past 5 years. Consensus growth estimates for the next 5 years are 13.1%. Dividend growth annualized over the 5 years was 10.4%. The dividend yield is 1%. Here's the visual: marketplayer.com Smokes & Eats & Drinks Phillip Morris covers the gamut of smokes, eats and 'real' drinks. Not the healthiest of eats, but eats that when combined with the smokes will be good fodder for the health care and drug industry. <ggg> Their P/E is 10.5 and they grew their revenues at 3.8% annualized over the past 5 years. Earnings growth was 12% for 5 years and dividends grew at 12.7% during the same time frame. Consenus growth is 12.1% for the next 5 years. The dividend yield is 5.5%. Here's the visual: marketplayer.com Supermarket Eats Safeway has a P/E of 27.7 and they grew their revenues at 13.1% on an annualized basis over the past 5 years. Earnings grew at 30.1% annualized over those 5 years. Consensus 5 year growth is 16.2%. Here's the visual: marketplayer.com How about some technology stocks we all know and follow? Intel has a P/E of 25.56 and grew revenues on an annualized basis of 20.6% for 5 years. Dividend growth annualized for 5 years was 30.7%. Earnings growth was 26.4% for the same time frame. Consensus growth estimates are 20% for 5 years. The dividend yield is .2%. Here's the visual: marketplayer.com JDS Uniphase has a NA P/E for the obvious reasons. Estimated PE is 53.46 and they grew their revenues on an annualized basis of 102.2% for the past 5 years. Consenus growth is 45.9% for the next 5 years. 5 year estimated earnings growth is 116%. Here's the visual: marketplayer.com Sun Microsystems has a P/E of 61.3 and grew their revenues on an annualized basis 21.5% over the past 5 years. Consensus estimates are for 23.6% over the next 5 years. Last 5 years earnings growth has been 37.2% on an annualized basis. Here's the visual: marketplayer.com Not really much point to this exercise except to point out that I think Coke should be compared in regards to the P/E, PEG, cash flow, margins, dividend growth, revenue growth and earnings growth to a gorilla like Intel. Let's compare those two: ------ Coke Intel P/E 82.4 25.5 Revenue Growth last 12 months 6% 15.4% Dividend Growth last 5 years 10.4% 30.7% (yield of 1%) (yield of .20%) Earnings Growth last 5 years -.1% 26.4% None of this is any sort of a recommendation, but just goes to show that mature companies like Intel and Coke are being valued at different junctures at this time. BB