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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (40241)	12/1/2000 9:57:56 AM
From: daryll40	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Just testing...it appears that this board may be down again or "sticking". Daryll40 10AM Friday, Dec 1, 2000

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (40241)	12/1/2000 12:17:40 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

re: negative sentiment building: The question is, how much of this is already in the stocks? IMO, in the stocks now is: 1. a soft landing in the economy, causing a 2. modest deceleration in anticipated chip demand, with the current stuffed inventory channels getting cleared out after 1 or 2 quarters more, causing 3. a few pushouts (again, by 1-2 quarters) for capacity builds, by semis with no cash and weak access to credit, causing a 4. flattening or small downturn in bookings, from current high levels. IMO, what is not in the stocks is: 1. recession in 2001 2. severe downturn in chip demand 3. cancellations of semi-equip orders, as chip companies put off technology builds (like 300mm) for over a year, like they did in 1998 and 1996, 4. causing the typical severe downturn in bookings seen with every previous cyclic downturn in this industry.

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (40241)	12/1/2000 12:17:55 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

re: negative sentiment building: The question is, how much of this is already in the stocks? IMO, in the stocks now is: 1. a soft landing in the economy, causing a 2. modest deceleration in anticipated chip demand, with the current stuffed inventory channels getting cleared out after 1 or 2 quarters more, causing 3. a few pushouts (again, by 1-2 quarters) for capacity builds, by semis with no cash and weak access to credit, causing a 4. flattening or small downturn in bookings, from current high levels. IMO, what is not in the stocks is: 1. recession in 2001 2. severe downturn in chip demand 3. cancellations of semi-equip orders, as chip companies put off technology builds (like 300mm) for over a year, like they did in 1998 and 1996, 4. causing the typical severe downturn in bookings seen with every previous cyclic downturn in this industry.