To: Peace who wrote (36926 ) 12/2/2000 12:36:22 AM From: eddieww Respond to of 42787 "The market is too smart to figure out things. The market moves well in advance of the fundamentals." A bunch of semi-toasted bar patrons decide to play a game. Each in turn will add a row and new peak to a pyramid of shot glasses, and bets are placed each round. As the pyramid grows, the waitresses begin to join the betting. With each round, the bartender supplies increasingly more glasses for the game. The more skillful the players, the more glasses needed and the more money bet. When the edifice finally tumbles, the players catch cabs home, some richer but most poorer, the waitresses have an enormous mess of busted glass to clean up, and the bartender will now have to buy replacements for all the busted glasses. Of course, he'll increase the cost of drinks by a quarter to cover it. Bar Patrons = Investment Banks and Mutual Fund managers Bartender = Greenspan and the Fed Waitresses = j6p and Mutual Fund holders The stock market is sometimes referred to as a "market of stocks", which may be true as far as it goes, but more fundamentally it is a "market of people" - of buyers and sellers representing the full range of human intelligence and temperament. There is no historical precedent for a mob to be more intelligent than the average of the IQ's represented, much less prescient. There is, however, a great deal of precedent for crowds or mobs to be at or below the level of their lowest common denominator. Some people will see the train coming and get off the tracks. Some won't. Kind of a financial Darwin's Hammer."The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" ~John Maynard Keynes Good trading to all.