To: rudedog who wrote (87337 ) 12/13/2000 11:16:36 AM From: Kenya AA Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611 From Briefing.com .... 09:25 ET ****** Compaq (CPQ) 20.77: And another one bites the dust... After the close yesterday, Compaq became the latest PC-related company to warn of an earnings shortfall for Q4. Like the others, Compaq tied the miss to "general softness" in U.S. consumer sales, but it also made note of weaker than expected results in the small and medium business and dot-com markets. As a result, Compaq expects revenues to be between $11.2 bln and $11.4 bln, which is 8-10% below the guidance the company provided on its Q3 earnings conference call. Similarly, earnings won't meet Compaq's original projection of $0.37 either. Investors will recall that that projection was actually a warning, too, as the Q4 consensus at the time of the Q3 conference call was $0.41. Compaq is now guiding Q4 EPS estimates to a range of $0.28-$0.30 and it is anticipating 25% EPS growth in FY01 over the revised FY00 estimate. That suggests 2001 EPS of $1.20-$1.22 which, of course, is shy of the current First Call consensus of $1.44. On its conference call last night, Compaq noted that the Q4 sales shortfall was spread evenly among consumer PCs, commercial PCs, and low-end servers. In addition, Compaq said it has started to see increased pricing competition in the corporate desktop space. Such observations provide yet another reminder that it is a good time to be in the market for a new PC, but it's not necessarily a good time to be a manufacturer of PCs as excess inventory and a maturing market have taken away pricing power. As for Compaq, its channel inventories for commercial products is at planned levels of four weeks and it is just under seven weeks for consumer products. When Apple Computer (AAPL 15 3/8) warned on December 5, its channel inventories stood at 11 weeks. The extent to which Compaq's warning impacts its stock price has yet to be determined, but to say that the market is surprised by the warning would be an overstatement. Since Nov. 3, CPQ is down 33%. When trading begins it should fall a little further, but given the stock's recent decline and the market's cognizance of a weak PC environment, we expect the impact from the earnings warning to be relatively limited. Even so, the expectations for its stock have been lowered. After trading in a range of 25-35 for most of the year, we expect the floor of that range to serve as the ceiling of a new trading range until the market becomes comfortable again with the macro-economic backdrop and the inventory levels in the PC industry.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com