To: John Koligman who wrote (163018 ) 12/1/2000 4:59:25 PM From: D.J.Smyth Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387 OT - OnTopic. How many whores can CNBC stuff in their backrooms and still claim they're busy working on news? What's it up to now five whores per ten reporters? Why do these analysts that CNBC's reporters interview demonostrate such limited working knowledge of the IT world, coming developments in it, and where Dell fits into that world? Dell already warned for the 4th qtr. What would an Intel warning really mean? Ge we're down a whopping $100 million again, so take another $50 billion from the market cap? The analyst on CNBC made the claim that PDAs and networking appliances will prevail and, well, ge, Intel just doesn't have a good chip for these instruments of fate. And well, ge, since I BELIEVE internet appliances will kick PC butt, Intel will warn. So, let's drop the growth rate of PCs to 14% next year. Good greif - 14% that is 1% less than IDC's prediction. It's talk negative first, provide questionable data second. It is more likely that current poorly configured PDAs (that's about 100% of them) will only lead to a greater desire for increased computing sophistication. Laptop sales were not among Michael's concerns. That is, if you believe Michael is telling the truth. But, since we know from alternate sources that laptop sales remain brisk, it seems logical that PDAs and appliances would eat into laptop sales first. They are not doing so. PDAs, without strong data capabilities WON'T eat into a PC's lunch. PDA's, especially in the U.S., won't have adequate data capabilities until 2003 (in Europe 2002). Optic provides LAN networking which is being installed in Europe now - but for PCs - not PDAs. Europe's GPRS networks, which are more PDA useful, which provide the higher speed data, won't come on line until mid next year. In the meantime, Eruopeans are still installing optic to provide broadband to the PC side. Downloading music to a PDA still takes way too long either wirelessly or by directly hooking to internet. The laptop, or PC, will remain the vehicle of choice until these newer networks come on line. And by that time, Dell will have wed their own P.C.s to the networks as well. And, what of the effect of XMas shopping occuring later and later in the year? I.E., the last three weeks of last year saw more sales than the eight weeks preceeding them. Some Intel competition is partially coming from TMTA according to Seybold (small shipment quantities now). So Dell is working on testing and developing products which include TMTA's chips. Seybold calls TMTA the "chip of the century". Dell is not wed to any particular chip format, but WallStreet has wed Dell to those formats. Sony put the TMTA in a specialized laptop. GTW is using TMTA's chip as well. It's wireless features are beneficial, but it hasn't helped GTW or SONY, as yet.