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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (80552)	12/1/2000 4:10:48 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael!!??!, Now you'd better apologize for making Slider use up all his exclamation points !!!!! and question marks!!??! By my count he is over 80 marginned in punctuation points and if the orthographic index tanks on Monday, he'll be wiped out. !!!!!????!!???!! Where would we be then (!!!??!?)?? Saints be praised, I'm still over 70% cash in semi-colons and all the diacriticals, so I'm not worried about myself, of course. In this holiday season, it's important to think of others, too, Michael. (This is not the real story, of course, but rather the significant pullback in the Naz today from its highs. Next week doesn't look good for tech, imho, and we may find a buying oppo amongst the tech leaders sooner than we think. Naz 2200 is almost a given, if not next week then the week thereafter, Naz 2000 is a probability, and Naz 1800 is a possibility, according to my Uncle Ted, who is almost never wrong about anything, all within the same timeframe. Bon weekend, mes amis.)

To: The Ox who wrote (80552)	12/1/2000 4:11:03 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Bridge Update--oil:iraq:white House Says Spr Oil Release Possible Dec. 1-MAR-- Dec. 1--1949 GMT/1449 ET ................................................................. TOP STORIES: IRAQ: White House repeats SPR oil release possible on Iraq disruption Washington--Dec. 1--1403 ET--The Clinton administration Friday reiterated that it stands ready to release more oil form the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve if a suspension of Iraqi oil exports threatens oil markets. A White House spokesman didn't say how much oil could potentially be released from the SPR, however. ( Story .19404 ) NYMEX Oil: Crude lower as market eyes UN/Iraq export quarrel New York--Dec. 1--1319 ET--NYMEX Jan crude oil futures were sharply lower just after mid-day Friday, with traders eyeing Iraq's export controversy and whether Saudi Arabia can make up for any Iraqi supply interruption. The United Nations has confirmed Iraq halted exports Friday morning, see story .17118. At 1249 ET, Jan crude was down $1.02, or 3.02%, at $32.80 per barrel. Jan gasoline was down 291 points at 83.95c/gallon and Jan heating oil was down 255 points at 99.70c/gallon. ( Story .1899 ) WRAP: Oil supply concerns rise as Iraq halts exports (Update 2) Nicosia--Dec. 1--Iraq has halted all its oil exports as a result of a pricing dispute with the United Nations, raising fears of an oil shortage as winter approaches. Iraq stopped loading tankers at the Persian Gulf in its Gulf oil export terminal of Mina al-Bakr and halted pumping via its trans-Turkey pipelines Thursday night. (Story .5961) Traders: Saudi oil storage not unusual; won't cover Iraq deficit New York--Dec. 1--1351 ET--Saudi Arabia would not be able to completely cover the crude market shortfall if the halt in Iraqi exports lasts more than a week or so, regardless of some 70 million barrels reportedly in storage at its export terminals, crude traders reiterated to BridgeNews Friday. The amount seems to be a typical "working inventory" for an exporter of this size, they said. ( Story .19229 ) Venezuela's Rodriguez: Not yet consulting with OPEC on Iraq Mexico City--Dec. 1--1423 ET--Venezuela Oil Minister Ali Rodriguez said Friday he has not had consultations with other OPEC members to discuss the disruption in Iraqi exports. Rodriguez would not comment on the Iraq's decision to halt loadings earlier this morning. ( Story .19616 ) Chinese stock riddle adds to analysts' oil price puzzle New York--Dec. 1--1424 ET--Oil analysts are at odds over the size of this year's apparent increase in China's oil inventories, a rise which some analysts believe accounts for the oil market's so-called "missing barrels"--the discrepancy in world oil supply and demand figures which does not show up in reported oil stock data. ( Story .19629 ) IEA Priddle: Iraq oil cut importance "should not be exaggerated" Paris--Dec. 1--0826 ET--International Energy Agency Executive Director Robert Priddle Friday urged against exaggerating the implications of Iraq's suspension of oil exports, although he reaffirmed that the IEA "is ready to take action very quickly if the situation warrants." A top IEA aide also told BridgeNews that the development in Brent and other key oil prices "over coming days" would be a key element in any consideration by the IEA to tap its member-country strategic petroleum reserves. (Story .15004 ) IRAQ: Baghdad accuses UN of blocking crude exports Baghdad--Dec. 1--0647 ET--Baghdad on Friday accused the U.N. sanctions committee of blocking exports of Iraqi crude after refusing Iraq's proposal for a new pricing program for December. (Story .14185 ) Turkish Botas aide confirms Iraq pipelines shut, in row with UN Istanbul--Dec. 1--0436 ET--Iraq shut down its twin, trans-Turkey oil export pipelines on Thursday night, apparently in a continuing dispute with the UN over a U.S. 50 cents per barrel premium levied by Baghdad on Iraqi crude export sales, a spokeswoman with Turkish state pipeline agency Botas confirmed on Friday. She said that Iraq had communicated nothing as yet to the Turkish government about when the pipelines might be reopened. (Story .14173 ) ................................................................. OF INTEREST: --AMERICAS-- Phillips Petroleum, China Natl Offshore in devt pact New York--Dec 1--0849 ET--Phillips Petroleum Co.'s Phillips China Inc. unit and China National Offshore Oil Corp. signed an agreement to develop the Peng Lai oil field in China's Bohai Bay. Under the pact, China National elected to take part in phase one development with a 51% working interest. Production in phase one is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2002. (Story. 15253) --EUROPE/RUSSIA/AFRICA-- Latvia Ventspils oil terminal loadings up 40.9% on year in Nov Riga--Dec. 1--0836 ET--Latvian oil terminal operator Ventspils Nafta said Friday it loaded 1.3 million tonnes of oil and oil products in November, 40.9% more than in the same month of 1999. Loadings in January-November totaled 17.3 million tonnes, up 2.4% on the year. More than 10% of all Russian crude exports to the West go via Ventspils Nafta. (Story .15128) Russia's Sibneft to invest $52 mln in Omsk refinery 2001 Moscow--Dec. 1--0826 ET--Russian oil major Sibneft plans to invest U.S. $52 million in its Omsk refinery in 2001, up "by almost five times" compared with this year's investment, Sibneft said in a release Friday. The investment will finance the completion of a new alkylation unit and the acceleration of the work on replacing the reforming unit. In 2001, the Omsk refinery is expected to hike oil processing to 13.25 million tonnes from an expected 12.5 million tonnes in 2000. (Story .15014 ) Lithuania refinery restarts after crude supply is confirmed More to follow...

To: The Ox who wrote (80552)	12/1/2000 8:53:50 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael H ie: Cap Ex & Drilling levels related to OSX valuations... Michael; often I wonder if you disagree just for the sake of disagreeing or taking the opposite stance of anything & everything I say. Yes; I did misread Adkins statement - ie: $10 Oil vs. a $10 reduction from current prices; but the end result is nearly the same... a significant collapse in shareprices from present levels. <A drop from $33 to $23 wouldn't change most companies' plans to drill new wells. Would such a drop affect the OSX? Of course it would but I don't believe that's what Mr. Adkins was discussing> ... "you don't believe that was what Adkins was discussing" ? - that's exactly what he was discussing. He is a STOCK ANALYST - his job is to analyze the industry; be it the relationship of crude prices to drilling levels, or Cap Ex spending to earnings - as "it relates to shareprices" - period; that is all he discusses. He is not a commodity trader, an economist, nor a geologist; he is a stock analyst - he doesn't "pass gas" (pun intended) without relating it to stock prices... Also; an extra $10 per boe; would most definitely greatly change drilling plans for most E&P's. That $10 per boe is the differnece between exploitation and exploration in the budget of many of the independants. It is the differnce between acquisition & asset sales. It is the difference of paying down the balance sheet while simultaneously increasing, or maintaining Cap Ex spending ; or not.... $10 per BOE is a HUGE difference ! - nearly a 50% increase in the historical average price of Oil. Would anyone here greatly change their personal "cap ex" spending plans with a 50% increase in their salaries ? - hello people... $10 per Boe is "all the difference in the world" - period. - think about that... << "How those companies' stock prices will react to $22/oil, well, that's a whole other ball game.">> ... wrong; that is not a "whole other ball game" - that is "the" ballgame, the "only" ball game & the subject at hand. - and I reiterate; he is an idiot if he thinks there would be no negative effect in shareprices to a $10 drop in Crude Oil prices. Actually, that is allready a given imho; as that is exactly what the market is pricing in here and the primary reason for the selloff here imo - in addition to the external factors of the weak overall broad market & the Election Debacle. This market forsee's a $10ish Drop in Crude Prices due to a slowing US economy - period; and that is "the" primary reason for this selloff. The shareprices selloff well in advance of the ultimate correction in crude oil prices. It is not "today's" crude oil price that determines "today's" shareprices - it is the projected Crude Oil Price environment in 12-18 months that determines "today's" shareprices - along with the expected Cap Ex environment related to that crude oil price etc. As usual; we agree to disagree. PS: How's techland... anyone still alive & kickin' on Invest LTD ? ... please pass along my warm regards to Theo & Co(VBG).