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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (63530)	12/1/2000 5:11:56 PM
From: Daveyk	Respond to of 99985

Now that's thinking like a criminal!Reminds me of politics.

To: HairBall who wrote (63530)	12/1/2000 5:25:26 PM
From: virtualsignal	Respond to of 99985

Maybe she's Right? , or an economist... Fed moves...Fed Funds (give rate cut a 15% chance this month), dealers (say only neutral this month, but cut next month), economists (some/same dealers? are finally catching up to the cut). Using fed-funds contracts as a gauge, the bond market is now priced for a 15% chance of a rate cut by year-end, a 60% chance of a rate cut by the end of January (the Fed meets 1/30-1/31), and a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut by March 2001. In fact, the market is priced for a 20% chance of a second 25 basis point move by the end of March. A Dow Jones survey of 22 primary dealers (those banks authorized to deal directly with the Fed) found that 80% of them now expect the Fed to move to a neutral directive at the December 19 meeting. That's a sharp change from a survey prior to the November Fed meeting, when 60% of the dealers predicted the Fed would maintain its inflation directive through the end of the year. Dealers cited the spate of weaker economic numbers as the primary reason for the shift in forecasts. Another survey of 21 economists by Bridge News found that 36% expect a rate cut at the Jan. 30-31 meeting whereas a month ago economists were unanimous in expecting no rate change through the first quarter. About half of the Bridge survey consisted of primary dealers also surveyed by Dow Jones.

To: HairBall who wrote (63530)	12/1/2000 7:04:24 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 99985

I do agree with you, and the math certainly work. In Hong Kong, the touts working for security houses do likewise for less, and people's memories are short. Also, people here do not attach good/bad calls to in-house sellside analysts, but directly to the houses themselves. Thus, reputations are easy to repair as long as one has good writing and speaking skills and look good on TV. "Mommy, mommy, what did you do for a living?" "Oh, I flim flam people into parting with their savings so that I can retire at 40." There is one multi-millionaire analyst (part time) and businessman (fulltime), David Webb, who had called Pacific Century a HK$ 2 stock when it was $18, had been followed by private detectives hired by parties known, had roughed up same detectives as analyst is a big fellow. His web site is just full of entertainment on the goings on in HK. He calls them like it is, depends on no one for a living and is hated by all those who are featured on his site. He does not say what to buy, only what not to buy. A sort of "60 minutes" of stocks. Check out www.webb-site.com