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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cellhigh who wrote (62174)	12/1/2000 10:20:51 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi cellhigh; So you use me as a contrary indicator? This is the second time in a row that I nailed the local minimum on RMBS. Using my "buy" posts as a time to sell would have hurt you bad. The last bottom was a bit below $40 on October 31, here's the advice I gave that day: I have to suspect that buying now, at $40 per share, is a great idea for a day trade. So bussers! Load up those pickup trucks! Buy some shares now!!! No, I'm not being sarcastic, this is not a joke post. Stocks that tumble on open very frequently turn around at about 20 to 40 minutes after market open. [i.e. 9:50 to 10:10am] It is time to buy RMBS for the DCB. #reply-14693607 The basic fact is that I am a reasonably good chart reader. Nowhere near as good as Zeev, but there are some patterns and conditions where it is very obvious what to do. [Probably half of the difficulty of learning to trade is disciplining yourself to remain in cash until the rare opportunities where you have a predictive advantage arise. Fortunately, there are lots of stocks to sift through.] Trading was/is not an easy thing for me to learn, I was never/am not a natural born trader. The way I learned was by making about 10,000 very small stock trades. I regularly get kidded about my small size trades on this thread, but it was a very inexpensive and effective way to learn. It is possible to learn to trade starting out with big money, but I have seen a lot of people fail at that, and I have never seen someone seriously fail at learning to trade who started with large numbers of small trades. The US army makes sure that their soldiers practice in safe conditions before they send them into real combat for a very good reason, and people wanting to learn to trade should consider this example if not my own. Zeev probably was born a great trader, and never had to trade small. As far as RDRAM, it is still quite dead. Numerous industry articles continue to be published indicating that the P4 will not be seriously ramped until SDRAM and DDR chipsets are available for it. It looks like there are still problems with DDR chipsets, but this is normal for early technology. All indications are still that DDR will be the next big thing. For RMBS, the question is now whether the patents will allow high royalties to be collected for SDRAM and DDR. There are still a lot of lawsuits going on that will determine this question. Unless Micron, Hyundai and Infineon settle early, I don't think the question will be decided before at least March of next year. But legal stuff is not my specialty. My specialty is memory design, and RDRAM still is not supported by the memory design engineering community. New hardware is simply not being designed to make use of RDRAM. Old designs (like the i850) are still coming to market, and will continue to come to market, but new designs are going to DDR. There will likely be niche uses for RDRAM for a long time, but the stuff is just too expensive and difficult to use to win the competition now. -- Carl