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To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (112329)12/1/2000 11:59:47 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164685
 
Greenspan is probably a bigger problem for the economy than Saddam. Any thoughts about wether we might be headed for a recession?



I am somewhat of a fan of Greespan. I did not appreciate his rate cut at 3:30 eastern on the Thursday of index option expiration with I suspect the intention of bailing out Long Term Capital Management. Beyond that, my opinion is he knows what he is doing.

I believe he was engineering a soft landing but the increase in energy costs far exceeded his model. I also believe the speed of economic slowdown was not as apparent as now when the Presidential election took pace. My believe is he would like to cut rates but it might be a political problem until the election issue is settled.

The bottom line is we could easily have a recession if this election issue continues. I know a rate decrease takes time to work into the conomy but the pychology of the spending consumer can change immediatly. We need the consumer to spend heavily now before this snow balls on the downside in my opinion.



To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (112329)12/2/2000 12:24:46 AM
From: Victor Lazlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164685
 
re recession, the auto industry slowdown should be watched carefully, imo. Several yrs ago I read somewhere that 20% of the non-govt workers in the US work in some aspect of the auto industry. It seemed high then and it seemd like it would be less now, but still it is a huge industry for the country.

But maybe offsetting this is that defense spending is supposed to be strong next few years.