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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bonnuss_in_austin who wrote (7944)	12/1/2000 11:15:56 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 10876

I'm thinking we could ... ...short the bejesus out of everything for daytrades up 'til at LEAST thru Thursday. It does look that is the way to bet, but this market is so jumpy that one could be bitten at any time. I insist that the presidential fiasco still bears [hehe that word] a significant influence in this market , even if it serves as an "excuse" to create some kind of rally. On a day trade it seems less risky... I am not really the best indicated to express an opinion on short day trades, as I feel more comfortable identifying some sort of trend. If we eliminate the presidential election, we could say that there is some considerable room to the down side. --but we need to watch the reaction of the market to a resolution of that issue Meanwhile I feel we are sitting in some sort of time bomb. I am have also thought that the politicians want to give strength to the Euro one way or the other. Is the US economy that sick ? are oil prices continue to rise ? I would say, perhaps it is time for the Federales to at least quit their jawboning biases ? They were complaining about the market being so sky high ? --well not any more... How low do they "want it" or will the participants will take it ? I am trying to learn the index stuff from the ones more in tune with the animal in this thread, so I confess, I am eagerly learning. My strategies are more conservative, and only thanks to that I have been comparativey spared by the present carnage, with the exception of one trade in which I got spanked (!) --yes, I am guilty of basic errors too, after all I am still human [I think]. Currrently nurturing the wound, so far successfully, but it may take me another 2 weeks to be in the clear... and for that, some travelling is in the cards.. so might as well just sit it out on the bench watching the blows. I will say this, I am now a stronger trader, and I find that the less I trade, making more "intelligent" trades, they tend to be more profitable. --but it does require damned discipline-- Something I have had to learn slowly. As the blind man said... "we shall see"

To: bonnuss_in_austin who wrote (7944)	12/2/2000 1:30:28 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 10876

An interesting read: (that thread was active at one time, with very interesting contributions) Message 14929641 The direct link to the article: prudentbear.com <snip> One of the reasons the USD has continually confounded its critics is that there is simply no consensus as to where to hide from its influence. All paper currencies are vulnerable, most equity markets are still historically rich, many societies have become overburdened with debt. The system has no anchor but the USD itself and the corruption of money per se means that ‘managed’ currencies are nothing but a euphemism for competitive devaluation by stealth, that the free riders end up driving the bus. Against such a backdrop, it might require a series of major blunders on the part of the US authorities, or a series of misfortunes restricted to the American economy alone, to begin a fracture in the linchpin. It would need the bravery to accept an appreciation of one’s own exchange rate elsewhere to see the trend reversed. Do you think the British would not respond to a US-led slowdown by clamouring for monetary relaxation in the UK, that the Europeans would not switch to even more stimulus, that the Swiss would not go with the ’counter-cyclical’ tide? Stay with major government bonds for now while the initial manoeuvres unfold and the troops are marshalled. If equities give way on a big scale, the need to bail out banks will reward you immensely. But, if lesser credits begin to stabilize and equity breaks the Bears’ hearts once more, be quick to shift. Your cheapest equity call is a put on bonds, financed out of your gains to date. Remember that resources are already scarce and wages and rents are rising along with fuel. Consumers’ psychology is shifting and if they are spared pain, they will spend the newly-minted cash quickly. Barring a recession, we will witness the Death of the Death of Inflation. If central banks win once more, this time they are likely to deliver up the worth of fixed income assets to an inflationary aftermath whose flames will make the bond crash of 1999 look tame. <snip>