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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (112332)	12/2/2000 3:03:16 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Cat: You have identified the key to understanding valuation in this market: You say "BTW current PE on AMD is 6...and nobody is rushing to buy the stock". So why is that? The answer is, because the market is now saying that AMD is not going to be able to maintain its earnings capacity because the stock is cyclical and we are entering a down cycle -- AMD is the tech equivalent of Ford and GM -- stocks which trade at a similar p/e ratio. INTC is also cyclical -- tech is cyclical -- what a revelation! Unfortunately, the tech stocks are down enough to fool people into buying them, but not low enough to be priced like cyclicals -- the market is on thin ice and the economy is cooling -- political chaos -- tight money -- and surging energy prices amidst bottlenecks which cannot be solved quickly and supply insecurity in the ME -- ouch. Mix this coctail in with the trade and current account deficits, a Federal budget surplus that probably no longer exists, the end of the strong dollar era and the consequences of foreigners pulling money out of our financial markets and you have -- black Monday?