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To: EightyEight who wrote (37037)	12/2/2000 10:46:56 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42787

Something that LEE and I have looked at in the past, was the NAZ/DOW ratio. sandspring.com After seeing that article, I recalled that the ratio between the DOW:NAZ was around 5:1 for a long time. Easy numbers to remember are the OCT 1998 lows when the DOW was around 7400 and the NAZ around 1400 producing a ratio of about 5.3-to-1. When the NAS got into the 5000 region, that ratio got as low as in the 2's. Would a sign of normality and a possible target be for the ratio to get back to the 5:1 region, which may also be the end of the decline in the NAZ. Another way to look at it is if the DOW drops no lower than 10,000 NAZ would return back to the historical range of 5:1 if the NAZ drops to 2000. Based on this assumption here are some of the DOW-NAZ ratios based on 5:1. DOW 10000 - NAZ 2000 DOW 9500 - NAZ 1900 DOW 9000 - NAZ 1800 DOW 8500 - NAZ 1700 DOW 8000 - NAZ 1600 DOW 7500 - NAZ 1500 - DOW around 7400 in OCT 1998 DOW 7000 - NAZ 1400 - NAZ around 1400 in OCT 1998, and approx major bull trendline for NAZ. Just a wild thought. Interesting if the DOW drops to 10000, the 5:1 ratio would be achieved with the NAZ at 2000. The low 2000 region has been a target by quite a few. seeya

To: EightyEight who wrote (37037)	12/3/2000 3:24:14 PM
From: OX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

i seem to recall the last time Schaeffer switch to Neutral, the mkt made an intermediate term bottom and he switched back to Bullish w/in a week.

To: EightyEight who wrote (37037)	12/3/2000 7:19:22 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Respond to of 42787

A bit of added info re: On Thursday, November 30, the SPX experienced its first monthly close below its 20-unit monthly moving average since 1994 (see the chart below) I've been tracking this 20 month average too. The current value of the average is 1392.4. I also track it for the monthly low, which is at 1331.9. To keep the average close from dropping, December must close at 1335 or higher. The average of the lows will drop if SPX goes below 1282. To me the chart pattern looks more like the one in 1990, where it also dipped below the 20 month average, than the dip in 1994. Dan