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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (35875)	12/2/2000 11:45:47 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Frank, One of the theories that we've held dearly is that due to their inherent strengths, Gorilla and King stocks will be among the last to be affected by a general downturn The most interesting anecdotal evidence of that in this 8-month slide of the Nasdaq is that as of only a month ago Siebel was continuing to hit new highs. On the other hand, for me, it's not important when the slide of G&Ks take place as much as how far they fall. If someone could volunteer for a little project, it would be interesting to determine how far the stocks in the G&K and W&W indexes fell from either the date that the Naz achieved its high or from the high achieved by each stock regardless of the date it was achieved. (Not being a stistics guy, I don't know which method would be the most revealing.) Based on the year-to-date data we've got, I'll be surprised if the stocks we follow here didn't do better in this free-fall than the Naz. On the other hand, I think it's also important to note how five of our Gorillas from young to old have done during the period that the Naz fell 50%. Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, Siebel and Qualcomm have all fallen that much or more since late March. If those stalwarts have fallen that much, my hunch is that the Kings and Gorilla candidates have fallen more. --Mike Buckley