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Strategies & Market Trends : Befriend the Trend Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (13675)	12/2/2000 2:37:13 PM
From: jazzallnight	Respond to of 39683

Thomas, thanks for the stocks to short list! lol

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (13675)	12/2/2000 7:12:17 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39683

NASDAQ Outlook I have seen discussions of what the NASDAQ bottom might be from the Harry S. Dent Newsletter and the technical analysts at Salomon Smith Barney (Louise Yamada, Alan R. Shaw, and Ronald Daino). Dent is a futurist, somewhat like George Gilder, with an overall bullish outlook on the market with a ten-year outlook. The technicians at SSB are just that -- they are dispassionate and look at the NASDAQ through strict technical analysis and historical perspective. Basically, they are both saying the same thing. Neither know precisely what the bottom will be. However, both believe the bottom will be either the 2500-2600 range or, if the NASDAQ breaks support below 2500, the bottom will be 2000-2100. Harry S. Dent would be an aggressive buyer in the 2100 range "regardless of the news". If the NASDAQ does not descend to the 2100 level and give a clear "BUY" signal, he would "wait for a strong reversal back up and a follow-through rally within 4 to 7 days that shows a strong gain on rising volume." It is not at all clear to me whether the action late Thursday afternoon and Friday, taking the NAZ from 2524 to 2640 qualifies as an initial strong reversal. However, I will NOT be a buyer next week until there are several days of strong advances. Dent believes that once the NASDAQ puts in a bottom , it will advance to the low 4000's on a strong rally from late 2001 to early to mid-2002. Both Dent and the SSB technicians see a long period of basing for the tech stocks throughout most of 2001. For this reason, I will hold 40-45% of my portfolio in financials and health-care related stocks until late October or November 2001. My LT-hold tech stocks will remain intact -- I am sure that will decline further over the next few months, but it makes little sense to sell near the bottom. FWIW, I do not subscribe to the various "conspiracy" theories that the analysts, media, and MM's are the cause of this decline. I think it is a combination of :(1) over- reaction to the extreme greed from October 1999 to March 2000; we are now in "extreme fear" mode, and (2) Alan Greenspan and the overly tight monetary policy by the Fed. The series of six interest rate hikes and withdrawal of liquidity from the market are (IMHO) the main culprit. I truly believe that Greenspan targets the NASDAQ market and wanted to precipitate a steep decline in what he feels are overvalued tech stocks. Hope this helps. DlphcOracl Hope this helps. DlphcOracl

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (13675)	12/2/2000 7:16:35 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39683

TC, Excellent list. I would only add the following: askresearch.com But, it may set up a bit further, perhaps 82 or so: askresearch.com The reasons I've posted previously: Message 14883415 Message 14902292 I want to be short CIEN again very soon. Looking for a re-entry, and this may well come on Monday, market willing. JMVHO, as always.......... Walkingshadow

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (13675)	12/2/2000 9:53:05 PM
From: smchan	Respond to of 39683

TC, looks like central North Carolina is about to get snowed in, so I'm going to take a little time to setup some bear call credit spreads on your short plays. I may also try some bear put debit spreads (I think I got that right). My motivation is to try another options strategy on your BTTT-Classic signals. I've been learning about spreads in this thread: Subject 19444 For one man's spread strategy, check out these posts: Message 14922100 and Message 14910826 Sam

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (13675)	12/3/2000 2:58:18 AM
From: JRI	Respond to of 39683

Thomas, anyone...what's your views on ORCL if it fails 28 (again) or EMC if it can't crack 80 in the next 2 days (or falls back thru on heavy volume)... I see ORCL heading towards 20 (and possibly below) then, and EMC toward 70 (and possibly below).. Any comments welcome! Also, what about CIEN if it fails to clear 62? JNPR 135-136?