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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Koligman who wrote (10839)	12/2/2000 3:52:03 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Respond to of 18137

John, I guess "nasty" is a fuzzy term, difficult to quantify precisely. Just scanning your table I noticed that although the Dow and S&P '32 lows ended the deepest declines, the overall timeframe was much longer than most. I know if you peek inside that famous crash, you can see shorter time frames with big declines, but on an average decline per day basis, this recent Nasdaq decline may beat those. The king of fast seems to be the 1987 dump, but history was kind to those who held through that event, and kinder to those who bought near the bottom providing a full recovery in about 2 years, beginning the raging bull. Somewhere between the fastest decline that is followed by a strong recovery, and the deepest decline that takes much longer but offers some opportunity to sell into rallies that roll over as they stall is a steady and fairly rapid decline that jerks the market around from one day-- check that-- one hour to the next. Traders may profit from this, but investors are getting hammered. I don't have the historical data nor the time to investigate in detail, and I certainly cannot see the future, but in time what started just three months ago may yet prove to be the nastiest decline ever. Sure, if you were in long positions in early 1999 and sat through it all you enjoyed the gains before the spring pull back, and maybe even managed to hang on to much of it, but I pity anyone who came into a bunch of money and put it "to work" in the market during the "summer doldrums" of Y2K. Dan

To: John Koligman who wrote (10839)	12/2/2000 9:27:55 PM
From: Wayners	Respond to of 18137

I knew 1974 was bad but didn't know it was quite that bad. Well we're within 10% of that 60% or close to it. My own feeling is we'll get a countertrend rally--end of year thing and take us back to about 3500 or so by the usual correction time again early next spring. At that time I expect the third and last leg down to 2000 to 2200 based on heights of drops on semi-log scale from last spring and from Sep to current 2500 to 2600. Thanks for the research. Very interesting stuff.