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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (40349)	12/3/2000 1:39:32 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

G, Sorry to be on topic but: In reviewing the 1998 amat bottom, it looks like amat bottomed at ~15x trailing earnings. Remember? Some on the thread were looking for 6x, which had been the previous cycle low. Using that trailing pe measure, we have just hit what I think is a series of different price targets, depending on whether we go with sales or book ratio's; or some ta figure. I am tempted to buy a small amount here....I have held off because the collapse has been fast enough recently that it's been easy to just wait. 27 is an interesting target for reasons we can all see, but I think that is the most extreme target. As you once told me about the os sector, "If you wait any longer, you are going to miss it." I am going to take a very small investment position in amat this week, and then wait for 36 to add. I expect the lower prices, but want to reestablish a position now, and begin looking forward to the next cycle top. I want to also add some intc here too. I think its been at least since 1996 that I recall seeing it at a pe of under 20.