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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nolimitz who wrote (21601)	12/2/2000 8:03:11 PM
From: Voltaire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

So, I guess we can assume you are short the Bus. Going to $10 eh? Well that gives you about a $35 profit if it comes true and just absolutely sinks my ship. Well I guess we will just have to wait and see what wins out, your DD or my angels.. Good luck to ya. Volster betting everything on the BUS and his mocked Angels. Re: Latest facts re RDRAM ramp by: fneww 12/2/00 5:10 pm Msg: 198095 of 198143 Potential revenue from RDRAM alone in fy2001. Lets look at the quarterly shipments from July 2000 through June 2001. For the first three quarters of Rambus fy 2001 we have information on the shipments. From July through Sept,some 7-10 mill units were shipped similar to the totals in the prior two quarters. This quarter we now know that some 15 mill units will be shipped and in the next quarter we now know that the plan is for some 25-30 mill will be shipped. if the ramp continues into the April through June timeframe toward a goal of 160 mill by the fourth quarter of cy 2001, then we should expect some 60 to 70 mill units. Adding these 4 quarters together results in a grand total for fy 2000 of more than 100 mill units. at $20-$25 per unit and 1.5% royalty, we get more than $30 mill in RDRAM royalties, possibly as high as $50 mill. Added to this are controller royalties from PS2, estimated to be .75 per unit and other controller royalties from sales of Nintendo 64. to be conservative let's say RDRAM royalties in fy 2001 are $40 mill. SDRAM compatible royalties ,now that Samsung has signed should run about $25 mill per quarter and will remain relatively stable unless other licensees are signed. the recent erosion of pricing for SDRAM's will affect the quarterly figures although this might be offset by higher shipments. adding some $5 mill per quarter for contract revenues results in a total revenue for fy 2001 of some $160 mill. this is the same figure as H&Q projects for RAmbus in fy 2001. No analysts have projected either revenues or earnings for fy 2002. there are 2 wildcards for fy 2002. the first is how many additional licensees will be signed for SDRAM/DDR royalties. the second is how will the P4 ramp proceed and what fraction of P4 units will be sold with RDRAM. From July 2001 through June 2002, if Intel ramps the P4 as planned, with a crossover occurring at the end of 2001, approx 100 mill P4 units will be shipped and if half contain RDRAM, some 50millx8=400mill units will be needed. at $15 per unit, a lower price than the current $20-$25, a total of $6 bill in RDRAM sales or $90 mill in royalties results. Adding controllers and SDRAM/DDR royalties and contracts results in a total revenue figure of between $225- $250 mill. Assuming that expenses stay flat, all of this extra revenue will fall to the bottom line as extra profit compared to fy 2001. any new licensees signed will add to this. pre tax profits in fy2002 could easily exceed that in fy 2001 by more than $100 mill, if the P4 ramp proceeds on plan and if other licensees are signed. In fy2003, this extra pre tax profit continues to rise subtantially as RDRAm approaches 50% market share. Edelstone has done this analysis and he computes an EPS of $3-$5 in fy 2003. thats why he thinks Rambus will trade at $200 as it becomes evident that Rambus patents are solid and it gains significant market share by 2003.

To: nolimitz who wrote (21601)	12/2/2000 8:28:41 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 65232

>>"It was a simple question"<< I beg to differ...... see this..... Message 14928741 Yup.... a lot more than simple when a review of some additional facts are compared to such claims. >>"Never said that I want to see anyone hurt in RMBS. You know my feelings on that issue"<< I disagree. Here's a couple of reasons why..... Message 14888214 Message 14693785 Message 14835822 I find it hard to believe you are being truthful or sincere..... based solely on the facts. I may be on ignore according to you. No biggie. It doesn't change the facts you have selected to ignore. Others will have the opportunity to see the truth though. That is what is imortant in the end. 'nuff said. Ö¿Ö