Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (37057)	12/2/2000 7:13:15 PM
From: eddieww	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

"I firmly believe FA ALWAYS wins in the end, but it makes for a lousy timing tool." I'll just repeat a quote I posted at the end of a previous message on this thread: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." ~John Maynard Keynes As for "quote of the year", this has been repeated so often by so many that it has become a trueism. A lot of people dismiss such trueisms, and when they do I like to remind them of the construction of the word and what it implies: it's called a trueism because it's so obviously true.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (37057)	12/2/2000 7:39:58 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Thanks Lee...let me add, that I think the October unemployment report was a "gift" from Bill to Al.....I think we'll see a nice uptick in November...expecting 4.1%... Just spoke with friends/family in Calif., Austin, Colorado Springs.....all 3 talked about hearing about layoffs, and, especially, commercial owners getting killed/maybe going bankrupct having accepted stock options in lieu of down payment/rent...now these companies are going out of biz, lenders holding the bag.. Dot-com crash might be our mini-S & L....although, I think it'll be localized to certain regions of country..However, if Greenspan doesn't cut soon (at least by March, maybe sooner)...this thing could get real ugly....manufacturing output is falling fast, lending situation worse since '90....if Greenspan kills the tech growth engine by being too stingy, we will hit a recession IMO...the sacrifice will be bringing the dollar back down (relative to Euro, yen), but that had to happen anyway.. As said, although I think Greenspan would love to prove once and for all he is not the market's savior, I think his moderate instincts will win out here...and despite all the other bad, bear data out there...Greenspan is the one guy who can make the "Naz bounces up/down within the 1990 log channel argument" somewhat irrelevant (witness the 1994 dead market- did not bounce between channel up/down/middle, the surge above channel line in '98, and then the super-bubble Y2K move....The Fed can change the rules of the 1990 Log Chart game.. I think a Fed rate cut in December would make a huge difference to ending the downward momentum (spark a rally short-term of course, and then we would start re-testing), but I don't think we'll get it....and, therefore, the 2000-2200- (or lower)- scenario is in full force, and soon.... I really struggle with "is it 2200 or worse" though..

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (37057)	12/2/2000 11:06:02 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Hi Lee .. You and many others have probably mentioned this .. but .. A: This is just the start of earnings warning season .. B: Many companies, for the last few quarters, have been able to pull off nice bottom lines on their quarterly reports because of investment gains. That could be a little difficult this time. There hasn't been much investment gains for anyone lately. On the long side, that is. It seems unlikely that the bottom should have set in yet. I expect to see more big names warn because of investment losses.