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To: Berney who wrote (8771)	12/4/2000 2:40:58 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Thanks for the lines .. As I noted to DJ, I switched over to calls (Decembers). I think that we may be very close to the end of this election stuff .. And we've been down so far everything looks like up. And we got the FOMC run up. And we got the Santa Clause rally .. The trend is down .. but with all of the above, I think we have a sharp counter move up for a bit. I'll probably jump off the train after a couple of weeks looking for more puts. Keeping powder dry for a change ..

To: Berney who wrote (8771)	1/14/2001 4:48:16 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

TB> going back to your post #8771... ...to comment as you req. RE: COMPX T/A > ...action in [NASDAQ] ...has been contained to seven trading channels since the beginning of time on the weekly charts... ...certainly true; it is perhaps easier, certainly more convenient for us T/A-wise when the NAZ is well off its highs ~ we can see the horiz. supports, magic lines which not only tend to remain significant when prices fall back down but also correspond to well-fit fibonacci retracement levels, fwiw. insofar as your T/Analysis goes, Berney ~ about the only thing I could take issue with is the implication that, if the NASDAQ consists of seven trading range channels, then : at any given time, including right now -- "we are in a stable up-down range channel" trading environment. although this may turn out to be true ~ fact is, we don't really know if we are "ranging" up and down in a stationary sense (eg., the DOW-30 Index) or, in fact still "decaying" in a railroad-track rigid DownTrend: as defined by the Evening Star of CLOSE 01-SEP through CLOSE 03-NOV, CLOSE 08-DEC and recent CLOSE 11-JAN-01... ...using a non-log daily chart of the COMPX. If we break out of this apparent, intermediate DownTrend then the next near target has to be around the 50d EMA area = ~2800 followed by a retracement of some sort (at least back down to the COMPX 14d EMA if not collapsing through this momentum and back down to horiz. support). then, the BASE support would be that COMPX ~2333 area; until we know better, we have to say that the dominant T/A feature of the COMPX is this apparent, intermediate-term DownTrend and not some kind of "trading range"... ...except in the short-term sense, which by nature is wave-like changes of investor and trader sentiment. _ taking the NASDAQ COMPX apart, the SOX - Semiconductor Sector ~ essentially a tech-industrial cyclical led by INTC:AMAT bellwethers ~ appears to be basing; the same is true, imho of the computer box-makers ~ essentially RLX retail-driven business cycles nowadays, as we don't have MSFT:ORCL software driving upgrade cycles any more. NWX - Networking and TEL-EQUIP we have to assume that Big Telcos are so debt-soaked that capital spending growth in this area is unlikely to increase regardless of where the Fed sets the cost of capital... ...so I don't see growth here, though I could see stability in the sense of a "trading range channel" with either: (1) a stable BASE support at that 2350 +/-25 level that you have identified; or, (2) a decaying BASE support for the COMPX as defined by the BEAR MARKET LINE drawn from CLOSE 14-APR + 23-MAY through CLOSE 20-DEC + 02-JAN. we could, for example say that "there is still lots of air to let out of the internet / over-valuation balloon" and make a plausible case for continuation of the BEAR MARKET LINE of decay ~ rather than a horizontal support at some level. The big question for the COMPX is, "What About BIOTECH ?" BTK.X is now at least as important to the NAZ (and MDY, fwiw) as the SOX; and frankly, we don't know much about it. Should the BTK.X collapse ~ it is, after all very highly valued on an F/A basis ~ then, to be sure we're talking about a NAZ scenario somewhere below ~2350. otoh, what we may be living through is some sort of fundamental change: one where we have a now mature "Old Tech" New Economy consisting of industrial cyclicals, cost-of-capital driven SEMI/NET/TEL-EQUIPMENT companies and consumer/retail-driven hardware and software devices... ...and an immature, emerging "New Tech" New Economy consisting of a whole new universe of BIO- GENO- and -EQUIP companies to play with. -Steve