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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (80635)	12/3/2000 9:59:51 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP - Re computer sales seem robust. If that is true then why are Compaq, Gateway, and Apple reporting very large inventory buildups? Imo after Christmas the US PC market will experience a huge inventory blowout to clear glutted inventories. This will affect Dell in a big way, bet on it. Also parts suppliers down the chain. This is already showing up in the pre announcements of the semi companies. Imo the worst is yet to come in computer land. Been noticing the trend in auto manufacturers of late? Shuttering plants, laying off workers, the return of the rebate, dealers selling cars at or below invoice. Computers and cars. Hmmm. A pretty big slice of our economy. Time for Greeny to put the pedal to the metal, don't you think? I am not in the "it's the 30's deja vue all over again" camp. I think we get a light recession maybe not even two qtrs of negative growth but that the next down cycle will be the big Kahuna, that will be the one when you only want cash - in whatever form.