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To: techtonicbull who wrote (120318)	12/3/2000 2:18:17 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 186894

Tech; Let me try to make this clear We need to take reports like Hogans and also look back at his track record before we just buy into some bull shit. ------------ I didn't find a lot of track record to check except he works for Jefferies and their track record sucks. The last fiasco was an accumulate on HD about 2 weeks before she dropped 42%. -------------- Market News commentators are more sick than most of the Anal-Cyst. In fact the track record of most News Commentators if they traded stocks the way they predict them they would all be in the poor house. ---------------- IF you are going to pay any mind to the "noise" by Commentators or Anal-cyst you need to do at least a little serious home work Take the 30 dow stocks and get the UPgrade / DownGrade history for 2 yrs & make a chart, Before you do that I'll tell you part of what you will find because I have done it. IT's to much to post it all BUT in a nutshell you will find that 95% of the Analcyst will make calls on individual stocks that if you follow will drive you to the poor house. Forget the BUY or Accumulate or other such cryptic and coded way they rate stocks..just use the upgrade/ downgrade record. Now understand this , while most of them are pitifully wrong on predicting most individual stocks They do have an effect and that effect is best found if you add up all the upgrades and or downgrades as a composite. A crescendo of Up Grades will happen just before tops, the reverse is true just before bottoms. Talk about shocking JUST DO IT. ------------- Now out of all the Anal-cyst that cover the DOW stocks I only found TWO that I would give any credit to being helpful in the positive sense. I will not post their Names.. I already know that if I do some smart ass will hunt up some of their misses and try to one up me without doing a 10th of the work I did. If you want to look at a more recent and most despicable bunch of changed ratings look at HON then chart her. -------------- Keep in mind most Anal-cyst have a hard job, they can't use the word SELL, without shooting themselves in the foot, as no one wants to use to a company to go public that uses that word. They are in a catch 22 position about how to tell people they think something is going down. They have to worry about the clients they sold that stock to on their last up grade and try not to piss them off as they don't want to lose clients. It's just a big a mess. I will point out one I think is really super sick and that's Goldman Sacks..take a good look at their track record..and don't miss going back to 98 and seeing that in April of 98 they did an upgrade on IP 6 times in one mouth and never downgraded her till OCT of 98 after she fell some 30%. ------------------ More than paying attention to what some pundit or Analcyst says ( as you will see what your looking to see just like most people do and will overlook the things that go against your mindset , we all do that) So find a way to circumvent it..add up all the Upgrades and Downgrades as a composite and get a mean level, then watch for a divergence of what they are calling for and what the market really does. Some of them I have no doubt lie worse than a whore with aids. I have seen three major stocks this week that they looked like they tried to bash and pound on down BUT they went up! That's not a sure sign but it's the start of one. Jim