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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mama Bear who wrote (86204)	12/3/2000 10:16:49 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

To all, George Soros will be on C-SPAN II 3 pm Message 14934005 sounds like he expects (TL) hard landing and the possibility of global economic crisis. mike

To: Mama Bear who wrote (86204)	12/3/2000 1:44:18 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 132070

Just off the bat it looks like a pretty steep premium for the warrant, though I know nothing about analyzing these things. The offering price is $3.875 for a $50 warrant, and that means that the euro has to rise (from about 87 cents) to about 95 cents before it is in the money, so to speak. Now of course if the euro reaches parity with the dollar before expiration, that would mean, what, about a 70% gain. I think I would rather have the $4,000 that I would spend for 1000 of these warrnts invested in BEGBX. At the end of the year I would very likely still have something close to my $4,000 no matter what, and if the euro reached parity I would make at least 15% capital gains. But anyone who wants to risk $4,000 might have a shot at ending with $6,800, or five times (almost) 15%. I am not sure that I wish to pit my brains against Merrill Lynch on this one, though. If I want to do that I can just buy a put on Merrill Lynch. Just some amateur thoughts.

To: Mama Bear who wrote (86204)	12/3/2000 6:47:32 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Barb, by occasion I stomped on the EUN/WS (the new merril Euro/$ wts) yesterday and put it into an option calculator with: Price = 3.81, $/EUR = .8785, Strike = .8695 ratio = .017391 (1/(50/.8695)), own interest 6.5% foreign (EURO) 4.50% and it returns an implied vol of about 14% which appears a tad high at first glance, when compared to the 13.10/13.40 the option markets quote OTC options. But the wts may trade at a sort of retail markup, OTC contracts are traded by the million while I can hedge my mini $ portfolio buying those warrants for a certain amount. As of today: $/EUR Fair Value .75 0.84 .80 1.68 .85 2.93 .8785 3.83 .90 4.58 .925 5.54 .95 6.58 1.00 8.84 1.10 13.85 1.25 21.86 Can't tell how it behaves on the market after just one trading day. Regards Chr.