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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (21655)	12/3/2000 11:11:25 AM
From: RR	Respond to of 65232

I wouldn't wish that grief on anybody at this stage. RR <eom>

To: Boplicity who wrote (21655)	12/3/2000 11:30:03 AM
From: Jimbo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

I even like 1800 better <ggggg> - once the earnings warnings start to snowball and the small investor starts his/her tax loss selling it is all downhill from here. Can't believe I am saying this -- reality stinks !

To: Boplicity who wrote (21655)	12/3/2000 11:47:03 AM
From: Dealer	Respond to of 65232

STOLEN STUFF-- NASDAQ Outlook Just read two reports/opinions on where the NAZ is going, one from the Harry S. Dent Newsletter and the other from the Salomon Smith Barney technical analysts (Louise Yamada, Alan Shaw, and Ronald Daino). Both are (IMO) credible, unlike perma-bears like William Fleckenstein, who always thinks the market is going lower. Dent is a futurist (similar to George Gilder) who is a long-term (8-10 years) bull whereas the SSB technicians are just that -- they are dispassionate analysts who use technical analysis with an historical perspective. Both are similar in their analyses. NEITHER know precisely where the bottom is although both caution against jumping into this market in a big-time way. Both believe that the NASDAQ bottom will either hold at 2500-2600 or, if support at 2500 is broken, will then descend to the 2100 level. Neither is sure which will occur. Dent states that if NAZ does test 2100 range, he would be an aggressive buyer of tech stocks, "regardless of the news". If NASDAQ does not test 2100, he suggests "waiting for a strong reversal back up and a follow-through rally within 4 to 7 days that shows a strong gain or rising volume." He then predicts that Nasdaq will have a strong rally into late 2001 to early to mid-2002 which will take the NASDAQ above 4000. Overall, Dent does think it is likely NASDAQ will get into the 2100-2400 range. The SSB technicians express similar opinions. They also believe NASDAQ bottom will be either 2500-2600 or 2000-2100, with no middle ground. They are not at all sure which level the NASDAQ bottom will be. For myself, I've bought VERY selectively at the 2500-2600 range. Recent buys were TXN at $36 and IDTI at $30. I will wait until I see NASDAQ make a decisive move away from 2500 with several "up" days on high volume before buying more heavily. The SSB technicians believe the technical damage to the NASDAQ is so severe that it will require a prolonged period of consolidation to allow a repair process to occur. In other words, don't expect the NASDAQ to snap back quickly. For this reason, I am diversifying into financial and health-care related stocks (40-45% of my portfolio) going forward. I am avoiding the large pharmaceuticals such as Pfizer, etc., which all have PEG ratios of 2 or greater and are priced for perfection. Rather, I am looking at generic drug companies and small-to-mid cap companies that provide support to the health-care industry. I am avoiding all biotech stocks without visible products or profits; they trade far too much on rumor and emotion. Financials is a sector that I think will be a standout once the Fed begins lowering interest rates, which should occur sometime next year. There are several smaller regional banks and some large-cap players (CMB, BNY, American Express) that should do well. I would avoid the large brokerage houses during the month of December into January. Because M&A activity, IPO's, etc, are drying up, they may well miss earnings and go lower in the near term. Many also face risk of "bad credit" write-offs. Once this is cleared, they should rebound quickly and strongly. Best bets here are: MWD, C, and CMB. CMB is already a compelling value, with P/E of 8, having been trashed for its merger with JP Morgan. Because of its exposure to JP Morgan, it may well behave similar to a large brokerage stock in December and go even lower, possible into the low-to-mid 20's. If so, this would be a no-brainer; once the merger goes through, this company will be a powerhouse, with outstanding management from both sides of the merger. In short, be patient and don't panic. It is too late and too near the bottom to sell and disrupt stocks you have held with LT tax status and probably too early to aggressively buy. December will have more early warnings, more earnings misses, and more over-reaction and panic. Carefully track the stocks you are interested in and buy selectively as NASDAQ: (1) approaches 2100 level, or (2) convincingly moves away from the 2500 level. Hope this helps. DlphcOracl