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To: Gottfried who wrote (80643)	12/3/2000 12:29:44 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Gottfried, something must be wrong with the 3 month chart as it is not now reflecting the recent closing price. Treasuries had a very strong rally to yield a mere 5.6%. This is a significant technical break of the recent floor in rates. Hopefully this year chart shows the rally to 5.6: finance.yahoo.com^TYX&d=1y Imo this signals continued rally in bond prices. Imo yields will reach at least the 4.5% level. All this in the face of 30 dollar oil. A rally of this strength and character probably could not occur if the business cycle had not peaked. Commodity prices typically peak near or slightly after the business cycle. Imo we are in a part of the financial markets cycle when only long term non callable govt. bonds do well. The good news is that process is now well underway and the yield curve is beginning to flatten even as the 30 year rates decline. I expect in three to six months a home refinancing boom will be underway and the financial system will begin to re-liquify. Oil prices will be lower. Asian and developing country economies are beginning to slow noticably now. The next move in worldwide rates will be DOWN. In a few months, get ready for the great money pump of 2001.