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To: GaAs52 who wrote (80650)	12/3/2000 1:46:54 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

One big factor will be interest rate differentials. The US will be the first to lower rates. No country in the world can really afford to lower rates until the US does. To do so would be to risk further currency decimation and hyperinflation. So it is a given, the US must lead in lowering rates. This will begin to favor those higher yielding currencies - eventually, much as it has favored the dollar recently. If, as I expect, oil prices begin to decline in the next few months, there will be less demand for dollars to purchase it. Current tight credit conditions in the US will in all likelyhood dramatically slow M&A activities. European personal debt levels are much much lower in than in the US, thus shortening the period for a consumer rebound. The US consumer will probably take longer to reliquify this time around. IMO there are many factors besides economic efficiency at work here.