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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (3398)	12/3/2000 4:57:23 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

It's real easy to criticize someone with one-liners when you don't know enough to say anything substantive. The only thing you ever do is toss around innuendoes and buzz words as if you know something. You don't know squat, which is why you never put out anything useful. You have said that Gum Tech is just like Quigley for two years even though a 10 year old could see that there are no similarities. You say my analysis is a joke? Which part is a joke? Do you dispute my estimate for $20 million in gum sales to P&G? What is your estimate? Do you dispute that they will sell $30 million in Zicam next year? What is your estimate? Do you have a value for the joint venture with Swedish Match or an estimate for sales next year? In an interview in June 2000, a Swedish Match spokesperson said that they plan to sell nicotine gum as a cessation product AND in various flavors and strengths for use as a substitute for smoking. They eventually plan to sell these products in as many as 140 countries. findarticles.com Do you dispute my calculations for Gum Tech's price to sales? Duh, if you know how to use a calculator there's no disputing them. Gum Tech may not be a Biotech company, but it is classified in the Pharmaceutical Preparations sector which is a lot closer to Biotech than "candy copacker" that the idiot lying shorts falsely throw out. Market Guide includes Biotech stocks and Pharmaceutical stocks together in the same industry group, and this makes my comparison valid. The price to sales of this group is 22.31, which is even higher than the price to sales of the biotech index that Mr. Dorfman discussed in his article. research.web.aol.com . Gum Tech makes dental gum that reduces plaque, and according to the FDA, plaque is a disease. Since dental gum treats a disease, dental gum is considered an OTC drug. Gum Tech makes nicotine gum, and according to the FDA, nicotine is a drug and nicotine gum is a drug. Gum Tech makes various other gum products that contain OTC drugs. These are the reasons that they have to follow the GMP for drug manufacturers and why they have an FDA licensed OTC drug facility. Gum Tech makes an OTC cold remedy and OTC allergy remedy, which aren't OTC drugs only because of their homeopathic designation. Based on this, which Market Guide industry group do you put Gum Tech in? The best fit is Biotechnology and Drugs. Regardless of how you classify Gum Tech, the stock is undervalued based on simple math. It is even trading below the price to sales of the S&P 500, healthcare sector, and any number of other industry groups. Pumping the stock? Quite the contrary. This company's management is way too conservative, which is why they didn't even put out a press release when they changed their SIC Code. You are full of it, and I think you know what it is!

To: Mad2 who wrote (3398)	12/3/2000 11:49:19 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 5582

Actually his analysis makes more sense than your series of one liners. Why not use this forum for what it was intended? This is an opportunity to consider various opinions and then everyone gets to come to their own conclusions. If you don't agree with Dan's comments then offer your rebuttal in a reasoned way which adds value rather than impugning someone who tries awfully hard to understand as much as he possibly can about this company. Just because we don't have to use our names or look each other in the eye doesn't mean we shouldn't be civil. Nobody has a corner on the facts regarding this company or its prospects. Dan's optimism has been balanced by an abundance of pessimism on the thread. This company's business plan has evolved and it has even changed its SIC code. They have made plenty of mistakes along the way. They only have one bona fide quarter of profits in the last five years. But, chances are things will change. Their relationship with P&G and SWMAY proves they offer value to large companies. Both have paid serious money to GUMM for their research. It no longer takes a tremendous leap of faith to believe that they will eventually turn the gum side profitable when product ships. OK, there is still the possibility that these things won't happen but, at this stage, it is no harder to believe that it will happen... Zicam's marketing success remains problematic. It would appear to be selling well but it remains to be seen how profitable. I am encouraged by the fact they are advertising well without incurring debt. This is important for a company trying to go it alone and living from hand to mouth. The product is potentially too big for GUMM and may well require a marketing partner. I think they have to deal with the QGLY lawsuit before that happens. They will also need to determine preventative clinical to help figure out what Zicam might be worth. External factors have made it tough on GUMM lately. The market sucks and a lack of sponsorship makes this stock vulnerable to those who want to manipulate. Alas, the share price will go where it goes in the short term. A P&G launch would go a long way to get things turned around. So would shipment of jv nicotine products. So would a big Zicam quarter. We may be very close. Time will tell.