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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Sector funds -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Isaac who wrote (3137)	12/3/2000 8:32:07 PM
From: Julius Wong	Respond to of 4916

Mike: I calculate a Poisson distribution of the tech stocks, which measures the deviation from a simplified standard model. The deviation is a way to represent overbought or oversold. I found if the deviation is very large (>10), the market will bounce in the opposite direction sharply, only a short bounce. The average bounce was 12%. A recent example was in October. On October 12, tech stocks were oversold, the deviation was very large (>10). The 5 tech funds (FDCPX, FSCSX, FSDCX, FSELX, FSPTX) bounced up an average of 15.8% in 6 trading days (Thu 10/12 to Fri 10/20), then resumed the down trend. On November 30, the deviation was as large as October 12 (>10). There is a good chance to have a bounce. Julius