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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (63639)	12/4/2000 7:14:06 AM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 99985

Steve--My 2c is that the March/May drop was an ABC not a 5 wave (overlaps) and that the Sept1 peak at 4260 was the intervening X wave to be followed by a second ABC for the C wave of a double zigzag--So when I look at the drop since 4260, I can already count 'abc'-x'-ab and a 1-2-3-4 of the 'c'...the 4 was Friday when the COMP failed to take out 2754 and so I think we will slightly undercut last Thursday's low to complete the '5' and also complete the second ABC from 4260, thus the end of the correction------I will be wrong on this if. after last Thursday's low is taken out, the market rallies and THEN turns down again and takes out this week's low!--so, we shall see---in summary, my basic assumption is that the March/May drop was a 3 wave affair and not an impulse--and that the X wave back up to 4260 was not close enough to the 5100ish top to signal a Flat in progress (ie 3-3-5)----rather an ABC-X-ABC.-----If the Mar/May drop was a 5 wave, then Prechter et al may be on track-we shall see... I still see this entire drop from the Spring as a big Wave IV in the larger context but with no obvious support points, I will be the first to agree that it's a bit scary---all the more so since there is still way too much complacency with Vix, put-call and arms not near bear killing numbers yet.