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To: excardog who wrote (80669)	12/3/2000 7:16:39 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 95453

$7.00 mbtu record for NG shattered!!

To: excardog who wrote (80669)	12/4/2000 2:39:20 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

My view of the next 3 to 6 months in NG related equities: The negative divergence between the explosion in NG prices vs lagging performance of NG related OS and E&P equities during the past 3 months is very important IMO and telegraphs at least 3 bearish intermediate term risks to NG stock investors who look past todays news stories and anticipate a different supply/demand environment as we move into the March/April 01' shoulder season. While in 100% agreement (with the numerous posts) that NG storage levels are going to be dangerously low at the end of winter; IMHO this WAS priced into NG equities at their recent highs in Sept. The reason for this is that major Wall Street professional players have always viewed the stock market less as a reflection of current news and more as a a "discounting mechanism" that anticipates fundamental conditions 3-6 months or more in the future. So what factors is the tape reflecting in that slice of the future that conflict with the current super bullish fundamentals??!! 1. We are in a period of rapidly slowing economic growth which IMO will morph into a recession, the depth of which the markets are yet to fully discount. 2. Agree with the "2001 the crisis" scenario. But what the bulls seem reluctant to accept is the risk that the public and political hysteria arising from such circumstances make price controls on NG increasingly likely no matter who is in the White House. It doesn't take rocket science to understand what that would do to patch stocks. 3. Finally, although it remains to be seen, some industry heavy weights have become concerned that there may be significant increases in NG production in the late Winter/ early Spring period. This would put further downward pressure on NG prices as we move into the low demand shoulder season at that time. Having said all that, how should investors respond? Well, that depends on your style. LT? I don't think anything has changed. NG is in an enormous secular Bull Market. So, "pure" LT fundamental investors MIGHT opt to "look across the valley" and hold right through this cyclical downturn into the Spring with the clear understanding that their portfolio value could decline very significantly. Intermediate and ST investors (as well as LT investors who trade a portion of their holdings) if they are not already in high cash positions should be selling into strength to build significant cash levels. Isopatch