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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37113)	12/3/2000 10:25:26 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

<We've got a potential Triple bullish whammy coming up in the next couple of weeks> yes ,for sure--but that imminent rally will be as the ever quotable Mr.Shake wrote"full of sound and fury and signifying nothing",and quite shortable. in my opinion no bear market can end until valuations have reached undervalued status,and at least regards NASD,we are still ,at least 50% overvalued,imo. Regards widespread negativity,i don't see it outside our "inner sanctum",the vast majority of talking heads i watch are still complacent,the conviction that there will be a softlanding remains at dogma levels,and is repeated over and over with smug coolness,i want to see some sweat around the collar of these major broker strategists. Saw one fellow interviewed on CNBC though who i thought to be dead on,someone called John Rogue--in his mind 2000 on the NASD a certainty,after a few up swing bulltraps--unfortunately didn't get name of his firm(Bleicher? something) max

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37113)	12/4/2000 1:06:15 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Tough to say. I am not sure what the trigger that could change things will be but those may be a good start. Dennis, I think people don't use the Commercials as contrary indicators because they have been at it for a long time and in the futures market, if you are wrong too often, you are dead. SP00s carry a huge margin and move quick. Being on the wrong side of a few point move can cost you big thus the commercials are correct more than they are wrong and tend to take the small guys money. Regarding all the bearish news. There is more of it but I still see a lot of bullish ones too. Abbey was just out last week and many others are still spouting buy buy buy. Heck even I am getting more bullish although not too much. I am just dabbling here and there for values and want to see a bit more trimming of the high flyers. As for no pain, I don't recall if it was cnn moneyline or NBR but one guest analyst or mutual fund head looked like he hadn't slept in weeks and was about to drop dead. He was touting all the highest price fluff pipe dream stocks and I thought to myself that he probably wished he was dead if he owned those. My biggest concern is margin calls. I haven't been seeing the anguish of margin calls one would expect. We had record margin at the top and I seriously doubt everyone got out in time. When I spoke with my broker a few weeks ago, he said many had been hit hard in March but not many had been hit in this latest drop. He did say though that many were starting to get on it heavily again. This was a few hundred points higher than now and I have to wonder when that bomb shell will hit. That should be the capitulation day we need. Good Luck, Lee