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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (9073)	12/3/2000 10:36:07 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Gottfried, I think it is good that we start and discuss when to buy. If you remember, I was one of those seeing a BTB at 1.40 plus, saying, it just cannot better, sell. Right now the BTB is at 1.17 (two months in a row), if that is the trough in the BTB, then around here is the time to buy, but I do not think that we will end this down cycle without the BTB going under 1.00, so, my stance is buy selectively in a week or two for a year end rally, but sell again in early January. I'll change my mind and turn on a dime if a see real signs of "capitulation", I have not seen these yet. Other "signs" would be AMAT and INTC refusing making new lows while the NAZ and the SOX make new lows. Zeev

To: Gottfried who wrote (9073)	12/4/2000 1:51:12 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 10921

Gottfried, first let me say that the knowledgeable posters on SI SEM boards, all current participants inclusive, were wrong as well. Maybe that's why so few of them should be posting now. My experience over the last two years in this sector has been that 1.) there are some stocks that often act as industry canaries; unfortunately since these have not been designated as ‘market leaders’ (like AMAT or INTC) by the local mavens, we will rush to ignore their signals; 2.) the characteristics of each cycle are idiosyncratic to the degree that we cannot proclaim a specific order level or btb to be a drop dead bottom (or top). Two months ago we declared btb =1.17 a normal seasonal lull, consistent with a pattern in 5 out of the last 6 years. No one on SI predicted 1.17 for October in April; no one on SI will accurately predict the April, 2001 btb now. 3) it is crystal clear right now precisely which phase of the cycle we're in; however, I, along with EVERYONE else, must abide by Florida statute 101.111 and 101.112 and wait 6 months to reveal this information; 4) if the most recent cycle has taught us anything at all it's that proclaiming that any particular moment is, or is not, 'now' can seriously impugn one's crystal ball. Your 'now' statement ('But that moment is not now') and that of the Yahoo poster ('Now is the time to buy') reminds me of that Louis Armstrong/Ella Fitzgerald song where pronunciation of various words (ex. tomato) serves as a metaphor for boy/girl views of the world. Each sings a refrain and then join together in a chorus, 'Let's call the whole thing off'. You simply have no idea if 'that moment is not now'. The Yahoo poster is exercising his guessing rights as well. And this spring produced resounding evidence that all the factual data in the world, discussed among intelligent people (SI), will not provide much insight into whose outlook is more accurate. The most recent history of prognostication on SI toward business activity in the equipment industry is poor....and we all know it. In fact, a claim that SI might act as a contrary indicator would not be unwarranted.