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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2912)	12/4/2000 4:24:39 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Thanks John: I had a mistake with the DOW YTD % gain and will correct and repost for year end #'s. As for the US $$ back when the $$ last made a strong move it peaked around 86. Many US manufacturers went out of business do to foreign competition between 82 and 86 (especially the foundry type). If they didn't go out of business they were acquired. Part of thier problem was availability of capital. This was an area Miliken and Drexel exploited. Part of the mitigating factor this time is US productivity has increased while last time it was going down. I know many on the Clown thread fell the government has been cooking the numbers (I'm sure they have )but I know of a few manufacturers who are able to product twice as much with 20% to more than 50% reduction in manufacturing head count. I'm still not convinced we will see a major exodus of foreign investors with the weakening $$ BUT it is a strong possibility. It depends more on how their domestic economy is doing and how bad it gets here next year. Not to go into the doom and gloom but the FED can still save the economy from a hard landing (the odds of course decrease day by day). I wonder when and from what level we see a counter trend rally. If this was the start its been pretty weak. Tim

To: John Pitera who wrote (2912)	12/4/2000 4:26:35 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 33421

Thanks John: I had a mistake with the DOW YTD % gain and will correct and repost for year end #'s. As for the US $$ back when the $$ last made a strong move it peaked around 86. Many US manufacturers went out of business do to foreign competition between 82 and 86 (especially the foundry type). If they didn't go out of business they were acquired. Part of thier problem was availability of capital. This was an area Miliken and Drexel exploited. Part of the mitigating factor this time is US productivity has increased while last time it was going down. I know many on the Clown thread fell the government has been cooking the numbers (I'm sure they have )but I know of a few manufacturers who are able to product twice as much with 20% to more than 50% reduction in manufacturing head count. I'm still not convinced we will see a major exodus of foreign investors with the weakening $$ BUT it is a strong possibility. It depends more on how their domestic economy is doing and how bad it gets here next year. Not to go into the doom and gloom but the FED can still save the economy from a hard landing (the odds of course decrease day by day). I wonder when and from what level we see a counter trend rally. If this was the start its been pretty weak. Tim edit - is natural gas busting or what? I guess the inventory build up is over and the takedown must be quicker than anticipated. Worth chasing selected stocks.