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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9084)	12/4/2000 10:48:51 AM
From: WTSherman	Respond to of 10921

<the feds own model is that we are 16% "overvalued", and the fed will not stop in "because" of the markets unless we go severely under valued. I doubt they will ease before late February early March, and thus, IMHO, after the relatively muted year end rally, there will be much more suffering. < Zeev, I basically agree with you, though I'm increasingly dubious that there will be any significant rally any time soon. I expect an almost continuous stream of warnings from PC company's, wireless mfg's, and many, many semi mfg's. Today's warning from ESST is probably very typical with earnings reduced from $.29 to $.06. ESST has diversified from just a component supplier in the low-end PC biz to a company that get a lot of revenue from DVD equip mfg., laptop mfg. and standard PC mfg. Didn't help... That so many warnings are coming so early is very ominous for the market. I think that the "double whammy" effect that we have discussed the last couple of months is going to be very hard on semi's. I believe that the economy is definitely sinking, not just slowing. Historically, the Fed has been slow to respond to recessionary pressures(while being quick to respond to inflationary pressures). Which means that it will be quite a while before they see the forest for the trees. The only contrarian thought that I have on this is that if the markets continue the very rapid decompression they are undergoing it may force the Fed's hand as the rapid loss of "perceived wealth" that people are experiencing will compound the economic situation as they slow spending. A couple more weeks of market destruction will mean a very poor Christmas season and that will certainly have a devastating effect on many company's.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9084)	12/4/2000 10:49:20 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Zeev, John Murphy feels there is still too much complacency among investors. Do you believe the bullish/bearish indicator should be heeded? >TOO MUCH COMPLACENCY...We don't expect things to get much better anytime soon. One of the reasons is that sentiment indicators remain too bullish. We're referring specifically the % of bullish and bearish advisors in the Investors Intelligence poll of newsletter writers. This week's reading showed 55% are still bullish (while the number of bears is in the low 30s). Normally, that combination is reserved for market tops - not bottoms. < stockcharts.com Gottfried