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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (37142)	12/4/2000 10:00:05 AM
From: herringbone_100	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

J6P: many of friends/acquaintances in hi-tech working at places like EMC/CSCO/NT etc. here in RTP in NC. these people all made much money in options/etc during bull market last few years. talk to these people all time trying to gauge sentiment... no fear. like you said, they are nervous seeing all their 'gains' for the year wiped out- but still so much ahead of the game b/c of years of service at these companies. they will not sell until they are convinced economy will tank and even then they think will come out o.k. long term on these companies... just nervous but NOT fearful... even though i know of some where bought their company's stock on margin for their homes, etc... still holding...but no plans to dump until it is sold out from under them. blindly hoping for best in general is attitude i find prevalent. been seeing TABLOIDS at grocery store with screaming headlines about market crash recently... interesting. 64 year old mother called last week and asked me if i was 'shorting' the market- this from woman who hasn't made peep to me in 6 years about portfolio managment other than to complain about cap. gains tax... in general, feel heightened nervousness is rising, but people sitting on their hands and hoping for best- not fearful enough to bail yet... IMO

To: donald sew who wrote (37142)	12/4/2000 10:11:15 AM
From: john rieck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

J6P--casually asked my barber Friday if anyone was talking about the troubles the stock market was having lately and was amazed when the answer came back, simply "No." In addition, among the 100 or so blue collar types I work with, nobody even talks about the market--it's like it's not even there!!

To: donald sew who wrote (37142)	12/4/2000 10:38:47 AM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 42787

donald, I agree with your assessment of J6P. However, I have come to believe that the only thing which will change the "real" trendline of the stockmarket (ie up) is a tremendous amount of unemployment. Dollar cost averaging works. If one could take advantage of hyper moves and get out with large blocks of money near tops, and move it back in (possibly piece-meal) on the way down, one can significantly improve on the 10-15% expected annualized returns over the long run. I was lucky enough to move money out near the top but have moved too much back in before the bottom. Still quite a nice result overall though. Looking for redeployment of the majority. Don't underestimate the impact of demographics.

To: donald sew who wrote (37142)	12/4/2000 12:49:59 PM
From: ru2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Yesterday I spoke with a real estate Agent from Silicon Valley. He said the difference now from a year ago is that a year ago when a house would go on the market no matter what the price, a dozen people would try to out bid each other. In the mid summer only 4 or 5 people would try to out bid each other. Now people are not trying to out bid each other, but prices have not gone down yet. He still had money in the market and seemed concerned, but only in a theoretical way. No fear at all. At the end of Sept and start of Oct. LOT'S people were in the public library using Value Line and IBD. People were almost fighting over the back issues of IBD and Value line. This went on for two weeks, then nothing. I think this was upper middle class money that had more on the ball than Joe 6 pak, but no where close to the savvy traders on this thread. Of those that I talked to, all of them seemed to have the attitude that there was the usual season rally coming and they did not want to miss out. No fear. <G> Now after a really bad day one or two people will come in to look at back issues of IBD. Ru2