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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Oral Roberts who wrote (4504)12/4/2000 10:21:21 AM
From: chomolungma  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6710
 
I believe a state-wide hand recount would put Bush ahead because Gore has shot his wad already. The Gore people know they will lose if spoiled ballots are given the "voter intent" test in heavily Bush counties.

• The Washington Post notes that Duval County, which includes Jacksonville, had 27,000 spoiled ballots (9.23% of its total). The Post says that while Mr. Bush carried Duval with 58% of the vote, the spoiled ballots were concentrated in African-American sections of downtown Jacksonville. True enough, but those precincts have small populations so they don't make up anywhere near a majority of the spoilage. Fully 16,650 of the spoiled votes came in districts Mr. Bush carried by more than 2 to 1. That explains why the Gore people aren't calling for a recount of Duval. In addition, several GOP-leaning counties that used optical scanning machines but tabulated their votes at a central location rather than the precinct itself had spoilage rates that were higher than those in punch-card counties.

• The Washington Post has pointed out that some of the Florida counties with the highest rates of invalidated ballots--Hamilton, Hendry, Lafayette, Gulf--were won by Mr. Bush. Charlotte and Collier counties, which both voted 2 to 1 for Mr. Bush, had 6,500 spoiled ballots.
Curtis Gans, who heads the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, notes that this year about 2.5 million ballots nationally didn't register a choice for president. He says there are inequities in all forms of ballot recounting and it would be "an irrelevant exercise" to recount votes only in Florida. In Oregon, which Al Gore won by only 6,000 votes, there were 30,000 ballots with no presidential vote. In New Mexico, which Gore won by fewer than 400 votes, there were 6,000 such ballots. The recounting, once started everywhere, would never end.