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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Second_Titan who wrote (80678)	12/4/2000 12:42:14 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

XAU/Gold's move continues this am - it's an omen folks... XAU up 20%, HM up 50%, NEM 25% off their lows; run NEM run ~ Naz, OSX, XNG comparison Chart to XAU since Oct... siliconinvestor.com If Gold continues to move; it's not a positive for the broad market recovery. I think the XAU move is because the US Dollar "must" and is going to significantly correct and has allready started to do so. Rubin & Greenspan backed the US Dollar into an obvious "Catch-22" Trap - cut rates to resuce the market, or to soften the landing & the US Dollar falls & Gold rises. Don't cut rates - and keep King Dollar at these levels & the stress fractures in foreign economies & currencies guarantee's an "event" that will rock the market & propel Gold into a speculative flight to safety move - King Dollar can not & will not remain here with our present account deficit. Foreign investors will not continue to hold debt laden US Dollars - especially not with an imploding equity market and a GDP that when it falls under 2.1% evaporates our surplus... our account deficit ramped last month - the Dollar is going to correct significantly & watch the Euro - they were stupid like a fox... ... the Gold Mining small caps - non XAU Components are still lagging - still screaming buys.... Nat Gas... playing the commodity itself via futures would have been the play obviously vs. the stocks. I still say any "weather" realated significant NG stock breakout is a selling & profit taking event AND a shorting opp - be forewarned... it's an anomaly within a subsector that is not contolling its own destiny. Also; it is becoming apparant that the Election has less to do with the broad market weakness than many think it does; a factor yes, but not the significant one. Valuations are still way, way too high; earnings are coming down, the economy is slowing and has significant underlying internal fundamental problems - big ones... credit quality, derivative over-exposure/leverage, reckless consumer credit expansion, imploding-default rates in corporate bonds etc. Still a "red light" flashing and the yellow aint anywhere on the horizon. A tradeable "bounce" rally in Nat Gas, or some OSX stocks yes; but "Tradeable" is the keyword - as even "short-term" Hogs get slaughtered occassionally. The $64 question's remain; can the OSX rally to new highs against the weakness-correction/danger in the broad market ? and; is the risk vs reward of merely "re-trading" a range that we've allready - "been here & done this" - with, about 4 times; worth it ? or; can & is the OSX going to new highs here ? ... Watch the US $ & watch the Gold stocks...