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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (63671)	12/4/2000 11:45:01 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

da_cheif: In spite of the soft NAZ today, after a little more consolidation and "maybe" one more spike down, I believe we're near at least a intraday to short-term lift off! I will play it as a counter trend rally until proven otherwise. EDIT: We will get spikes from the news events, but the big boyz are going to take the market in the intended direction. QCOM <----- Knocking on its Jan falling resitance line, semi-log scale. NTAP <----- After a bearish consolidation at its Oct 98 rising support line, it continued its move down and pivoted a little above a complete retrace of the April rising trading channel Thur. RMBS <----- Pivoted right at the May low last Thur. Regards, LG

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (63671)	12/4/2000 11:59:28 AM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Am not familiar with history of COT's dependability vis-a-vis NDX, but, if I read those charts correctly, they don't compensate for lag: As I understand it, COT data is delayed a week, and comes out only weekly, so, e.g, the "daily" reading for 12/01/00 would really be a weekly reading for the week ending 11/24/00, and so on. Which MIGHT suggest the Cs were long just before the top in the NDX, and were already screaming into short-land right before the plunge. That S&P number remains rather astonishing. Unless there's some alternative explanation (a subject apparently of lively discussion among COT-followers), the Cs sure seem to have been betting (if that's the right word, as the Cs are not considered "gamblers") that the S&P was going to follow the Nas. For all I know, they've been more than happy to grab a big chunk of sure thing on a relatively minor drop, rather than expecting a major win on a major plunge. For all any of us know, they've already started covering - though it sure would seem they'd have a long way to go.

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (63671)	12/4/2000 12:01:10 PM
From: Saulamanca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

DW, That is a lot of shorts to cover in the S&P, it could provide a lot of fuel for your rocketship some day.-g- On the NDX, it looks like the peak in buying was in the middle of March. My concern is that it seems that there are too many people buying the falling knife. It would make life much easier if we were seeing some real fear and panic. AG Edwards (Mark Keller) lifted five percent from their bond weighting to place into stocks. They are now recommending 70 percent allocation in stocks and 30 percent in bonds. JP Morgan (Douglas Cliggott) raised their stock weighting from 50 to 60 percent, reducing both bonds and cash from 25 to 20 percent. This is by far the most aggressively that the Wall Street analysts, as a whole, have bought into a market decline in nearly a decade. schaeffersresearch.com