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To: chomolungma who wrote (120405)	12/4/2000 3:41:22 PM
From: WTSherman	Respond to of 186894

<The first is the dollar which is already retreating. That will help the trade gap and boost the economy. All those companies that were hurt by a weak Euro will report the opposite effect.< Well, depends on how you look at the whole picture. Euro has not rebounded to the levels that it was at 90 days ago, yet. So, its hardly going to improve earnings this quarter over the last. Moreover, positive movement by the Euro and anticipated weakness in the US$ will actually put pressure on the US markets as European money will start to move out. Big support to the markets has come from Europe this year. A strong uptrend by the Euro will reverse this. Lastly, European economies are probably more fragile than the US, if a recession strikes here it will quickly be felt in countries like UK and Germany. I don't have a crystal ball and don't mean to sound like I "know" what's going to happen(though sometimes I do sound that way). But, I think the downside risk is greater, right now, than the upside potential for all the reasons I cited previously.