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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (147)	12/4/2000 6:11:30 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 9255

<< Limited, regional backing has never worked as a mobile phone sales strategy >> When you have no data (except CDPD) you do it regionally. When GPRS rolls out look for regional (where no CDPD). PocketNet could both be CDPD and GPRS. Make do with what you have. Cingular has bigger problems. CDPD, GSM, TDMA, GPRS, YUK. << I seriously doubt AT&T can stay committed to CDPD along with GSM/GPRS >> Only interim. << they may have squandered the chance of becoming a GSM/GPRS launch contractor by going the CDPD route. This is what Mitsubishi seems to have done >> Look for Mitsubishi at launch time. Remember, Mitsubishi signed a contract with AT&T Wireless to begin supplying TDMA digital cell phones last August. 1.5 million phones were to be delivered by March 31, 2000. Capitalizing on it's Braselton, GA manufacturing facility, Mitsubishi hoped to build on this foothold in the American market. It's early GSM efforts (dating back to 1996/1997 were not very successful). In 2001, Mitsubishi was supposed to begin delivering a handset for AT&Ts EDGE service. The T250/T255 and the G310/G340 shells aren't bad and the T250/T255 10 line display is darned good, if not great. Mitsubishi has experience with multi-mode including AMPS and with 800/1900 MHz. Launch timing for their Geo GPRS (G310 shell) is April 2000. Right now the Geo GSM is GSM 900/1800. No WAP. France Telecom launched Itineris WAP services a while back, with a Mitsubishi Trium handset (and the 7110). Doesn't FT use Nokia's WAP servers? Both VoiceStream and PacBell need WAP GSM WAP GPRS ASAP Don't count Mitsubishi out. Meantime: TA TA Cingular launches "My Wireless Window" in Chicago, Central Illinois, Dallas and Tulsa with the TDMA WAP enabled Nokia 7160: 209.184.201.45 Cingular launches "My Wireless Window" in PacBell GSM country with 3 Motorola models. No Nokia in sight. Looks like VoiceStream still waiting to WAP & GPRS it. BellSouth has only one WAP model (Motorola). GSM WAP late. GSM GPRS later. Advantage CDMA in the good ole USofA. - Eric -

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (147)	12/14/2000 6:32:05 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 9255

Tero, Before I update my SI Profile I thought I would let you be the first to know that I have retaken a position in NOK. As you know I exited my long term position in NOK on 1/5/99. This was a Gorilla Gaming move, and a good one because I took a LTB&H position in QCOM (with a little OMPT thrown in) with the proceeds. Here is the scorecard for that move: QCOM = + 1260% NOK = + 222% OMPT = a 10 Bagger through exit on 12/31/99 I made the decision back then that by Geoffrey Moore's terms, Nokia was a Prince of Wireless and a Prince of Handsets. Nothing wrong with Princes. Prince Dell contributed well to my portfolio growth, over the course of years, as did Nokia, but I determined that my portfolio would and should consist of at least 90% Gorillas & Kings, and with the remaining 10% I'd play some "Wild Cards" on a shorter term basis (Gorilla Gaming being a LTB&H investment theory). I have continued to watch Nokia closely. I am reentering Nokia, because I am now convinced that Nokia is "purely" the King of Handsets (the market leader with properly 2x market share of their next closest competitor), and arguably King of Wireless. I will shortly be preparing a "Project Hunt" report on Nokia for my "Home" SI thread "Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates". In the course of developing the report, I may call on you for assistance. My decision to buy NOK does not come at the expense of my position in QCOM, rather it supplements it. QCOM remains a core hold in my portfolio, and my largest single position. It is not a coincidence that my new (renewed) position in NOK closely follows Nokia's announcement that they intend to assume a leadership position in CDMA. GSM remains and will remain the platform of the wireless voice and data future of wireless mobile telephony, but CDMA is the radio link that will insure its success. In the interim GSM/GPRS will become the predominant radio link until 3G services mature. I do not view Nokia and QUALCOMM as competitors, although they most certainly were at the time I made my original investment in QUALCOMM. Happy Holidays. - Eric - Nokia and QUALCOMM: Together the World

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (147)	12/16/2000 11:19:34 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 9255

John Hoffman in a November GSMA newsletter .... >> Q. You have been coming down pretty hard on the terminal manufacturers. Give them a break. GPRS terminals take a long time to develop and test. A. Sorry dog breath. No can do! Just last week, a panel discussion at the IBC GPRS Conference confirmed what I have been saying all along. It can be done. Ericsson, Siemens, Alcatel and Nokia were strikingly at odds with Motorola. These manufacturers said things like "the specs have been a moving target" (somewhat true), "the test specifications have not been settled" (somewhat true), the GSM Certification Forum has not been able to agree on a suite of GPRS tests" (somewhat misleading), operators have not placed firm orders (somewhat misleading) and that inter-operability and field testing is difficult, if not impossible to do right now (somewhat misleading). What I heard was a bunch of gobbily goop about ‘why we can’t’, and not enough ‘how we can’, except from Motorola. I will be the first to admit that a GPRS device is complicated. And test specs are still in the development phase. And that GCF is having trouble agreeing a full suite of tests because some participants may want to slow down the certification process. And, and, and, the list goes on. Yet, a breath of fresh air existed with the panel when Motorola confirmed they have GPRS terminals which they will now ship in quantity and which have been tested around the world on working GPRS networks. In fact, when asked, Rainer Lischetzki said he was confident that their GPRS terminal would not experience inter-operability problems when used on any GPRS type of infrastructure due to Motorola’s extensive field and lab testing. Now, I admit that I have come down pretty hard on Motorola a time or two in the past - but now I am singing their praises! If Motorola can do it, so can the others. Come on guys. Get with the program! For the largest terminal manufacturer to say again that quantities of their GPRS terminals will not be available until the second half of 2001 doesn’t make sense! The market tells me they want these devices now. Not in the second half of next year. << - Eric -

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (147)	1/22/2001 2:20:46 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9255

Tero (Others), Re: Nokia Infra Market Share? Wondering if you can shed any light on Nokia's market share in wireless infrastructure in 2000. A report published last year by Forward Concepts "tags Ericsson as the leading vendor of cellular infrastructure equipment in 1999, with an estimated 27% of the market, followed by Lucent and Nokia, each with a 14% market share. Motorola and Nortel are close behind, each with a 12% market share. Other significant infrastructure vendors include NEC, Siemens, Alcatel and Fujitsu." My gut tells me that in 2000 that Nokia could have jumped out ahead of Lucent (and others) for number 2 slot. This recent (edited) clip would indicate different: >> Nortel's Wireless Biz No Slouch In 2000 telecomweb.com Nortel Networks' [NT] (more) strong fourth-quarter earnings report, its wireless infrastructure business was a key member of the supporting cast. Much attention is on Nortel's ... wireless infrastructure business performed well in the recent quarter. Its third-generation network contracts, for wideband-CDMA systems, in the quarter included agreements worth $1.25 billion with AT&T Wireless [AWE] (more), Deutsche Telekom's [DT] (more) T-Mobile subsidiary and Spanish 3G network consortium Xfera. Those contracts capped a year in which Nortel announced $2.1 billion in wireless network deals. According to investment banker Merrill Lynch's [MER] (more) report, "Wireless Equipment: The Wireless Scorecards," Nortel had 20 percent of the global wireless infrastructure market as of Nov. 30, 2000. Since Merrill Lynch began tracking wireless equipment contracts in March 1998, Nortel has gained 7 percent market share. Ericsson [ERICY] is the only vendor ahead of Nortel in the wireless infrastructure market, according to Merrill Lynch. << TIA for any help you can provide with this. - Eric -

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (147)	2/2/2001 6:25:55 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 9255

Re: MAJOR Brazil News Well, the new plant can always be used for CDMA ... Nokia style 1XTREME of course. <g> >> Brazilian Wireless Auction Suspended February 2, 2001 SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) -- Brazil's telecommunications regulator Anatel said Friday it had suspended next week's planned auction for the first three of nine new licenses due to a lack of bidders. Analysts said the agency had asked too high a price, chosen the wrong technology and -- most importantly -- got its timing wrong. Anatel President Renato Guerreiro told a news conference in the federal capital, Brasilia, that the sale would not take place as slated next Tuesday. But he said auctions for the second and third groups of three licenses would go ahead as planned Feb. 20 and March 13 respectively. The three groups of licenses are known here, respectively, as Bands C, D and E. The Band C licenses were priced higher than those for Bands D and E because they were to start operating in July, six months ahead of the other two bands. That was supposed to allow holders to establish market share before facing fresh competition. ``This is not what we wanted,'' Guerreiro said Thursday after only one sealed envelope containing a non-valid bid for Band C was submitted. ``We were expecting more participants.'' The suspension was a blow to Anatel's hopes of redrawing the map of Brazil's national wireless coverage and to the government's expectations of collecting at least $2.4 billion for the nine new concessions. Anatel was asking minimums of between $270 million and $500 million for each of the licenses, depending on the size and population of their operating region. Guerreiro insisted Thursday that the minimum prices had been calculated with ``absolute precision.'' But others said they were too high given the current retrenching in the world telecom market, and had scared off major wireless players such as France Telecom and Britain's Vodafone. ``If they had held the auction a year ago, things would have been much easier,'' said Mirella Rappaport, telecoms analyst at ABN-Amro in Sao Paulo. ``There was much more capital available and investors weren't even doing calculations on returns.'' No longer. The telecom sector, financially stretched from expansion and sky-high prices in the first European auctions of the most advanced licenses, is suffering a serious hangover. Anatel has also been criticized for putting Brazil's new licenses on the frequency used by European technology rather than the frequency already used by Brazil's existing wireless licenses. ``There's a window of opportunity here,'' said Rappaport. ``The more time passes, the less interesting Band C looks. There's a reluctance to invest in technology that will soon be outdated, especially if you're not in the market already.'' Guerreiro said Anatel will again try to sell the Band C licenses in the first half of this year, maybe at a lower minimum price. Guerreiro confirmed there were seven bids each for the auctions for Bands D and E but with many bidders participating in both bands, premiums are not expected to be high. All participants in those auctions are already operating some telecommunications service in Brazil. << - Eric -