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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (63714)	12/4/2000 5:21:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 99985

Hi LG, I modified that last post after you had already read it. I added my history since Jan. 1990 for both my IRA and my personal taxable account. Going out to the summer of 2001, I see the NASDAQ rising between 11% at the low end and 39% at the high end. I know that's a pretty big range, but don't have any way to refine it. Much of that gain will just be relieving the current selling pressure from the market. If we go back to March and pretend we had this same conversation, I would have guessed that the NASDAQ might have fallen 33% to 50% but wouldn't have been more specific then either. The long term central value of my IW graph is almost exactly 40 (the center of the Average Risk range), so any divergence from that as the pendulum swings usually has to be "corrected" later on. In March, it hit about 60, so falling to 40 would have been the 33% decline and a fall all the way to 30 (where the IW signals Low Risk) would have been about a 50% decline. Today the IW's showing a value of 36. So, a rise to 40 would be about 11% while to rise to 50 would be the 39% possible gain. All of this assumes that the earnings of the companies themselves stay essentially steady for the period. Here's the graphs that shows the short term (three+ years) history of each of the components. aim-users.com (composite) aim-users.com (valuation component) aim-users.com (speculation component) aim-users.com (divergent opinion component) aim-users.com (net IPO growth vs consolidations and delistings) Right now two of the four are showing Bullish signals. The other two are in their Neutral zones. It is most significant when all four components are in harmony. That's pretty rare, however. I have data going back to 1982 available for anyone to download if they want to study this stuff in any detail. It's at aim-users.com Best regards, Tom All the

To: HairBall who wrote (63714)	10/17/2001 5:26:20 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi LG, It's been quite a while since I posted here on MDD. I thought you'd like to see that my risk indicator has just this week finally signaled Low Risk for the first time since the Bear arrived 18 months ago. aim-users.com This risk indicator has only signaled Low Risk 5 times since 1982. Here's information on when those times have occurred: Message 16461582 Please note there's an typo in the 09/21/1990 info and the increase at 6 months should be 21.9%. This may not mean we've seen the ultimate lows (especially with the current uncertainty) but it has usually meant we're getting darned close. Here's another graph that goes back to 1986: aim-users.com I guess we'll know soon enough if this is now finally a low risk environment in which to invest. Best regards, Tom