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To: Joe Krupa who wrote (6046)12/4/2000 5:44:18 PM
From: bdalarge  Respond to of 14101
 
Hi Guys,

I may be showing my ignorance here but I sometimes feel that many of you put too much stock (no pun intended) in the charts. I don't think the open/close price is any indicator as to what this stock is going to do. We are waiting for more announcements and approvals and that is why we see the action we have been seeing. There is going to be selloffs by those who are happy to make a buck or two a share. The charts can't predict FDA approval and if that comes tomorrow then I doubt the close or open price of days past will be of any significance. Not suggesting we should entirely ignore the charts or that anyone is unwise to have faith in them...simply my belief is that right now they are not a reliable indicator of where the stock is headed.

That being said I couldn't be happier discussing this issue under the current set of circumstances.



To: Joe Krupa who wrote (6046)12/4/2000 6:00:51 PM
From: David Graham  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Although I use TA when making buy and sell decisions, I'm a bigger fan of MACD and trendlines.

Having said all that, I have friend who still draws his charts on log paper with a pencil, and he generally makes a bundle of cash. Now he's not in to these new-fangled indicators (his phrase, not mine, I am too young to say that). He would look at this chart and say it's doubled in less than two weeks, the volume on breakout day hasn't been eclipsed, the uptrend is very steep (unsustainably so) and it's looking tired. I would add that we are running into the 200-day MA.

Do I have the courage to sell here? I don't know, but they are safer times to buy. I think the stock will need to have some news before it stays above the 200-day line.

FWIW

David



To: Joe Krupa who wrote (6046)12/4/2000 6:10:31 PM
From: Tom Gordon  Respond to of 14101
 
Joe,
You're synoptic overview of todays action is pretty head on.
When we see a flush in the stock to wipe out the opening gap up, and then see the price return to close at the actual high for the day does entail a strong opening gap for tomorrow.
We don't often see this happen, especially in the current markets of late.
All odds are for a commencement of the bull run with mild pullbacks until the impending news.

Enjoying the run, TG.



To: Joe Krupa who wrote (6046)12/4/2000 9:26:38 PM
From: Mark Bartlett  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Joe,

The trend is still up - my 2 cents.

There is a lot of momentum in this puppy right now and I do not believe we have seen the end of it. IMO the volume is the key - if it continues to be strong, then we are not done.

This is more a fundamental play right now - and when news is announced, that will define where we are going from that point.

That being said, 12 bucks will be a tough resistance to get through - if we do convincingly on decent volume, it will be a very strong support level thereafter.

MB



To: Joe Krupa who wrote (6046)12/4/2000 11:16:32 PM
From: Cal Gary  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Hi Joe and et al, if you reread your post, indirectly you have sort of answered your own question. :-)

If we stay on the daily chart, then yes the doji is a warning sign.

Doji appearing during an uptrend is bearish but it normally needs a bearish candle tomorrow to confirm. If we get a bullish candle, then its void but the top for current move maybe near. Today's candle is a doji but I would even call it a hanging man candle. Again, a hanging man needs a subsequent candle to confirm.

However, this is what I have been doing. Given the recent increased volatility verses DMX's mid-term / historic low volatility, my first instinct would be to shorten from a daily chart to a 60 or 30 minute chart to get clues about moves and market strenght. 30 minute is just enough for DMX's current volatility, IMO( but others can argue this, 60min to 15 min, esp day traders and pros like the Chief). It gives a different picture of what is happening with the accumulation / distribution through out the day and inter day.

ASide, compared to what a day trader trades, DMX (with its recent volatility) is still a relatively low beta stock; esp compared to SVN, WIN, RIM, CLS, indexes like NAZ and even CLQ, KCA, etc. Daytraders would use 1min, 2min bars for very volatile stocks and indexes, and switch to 5min for relatively 'lesser' very volatile stocks. Reason is that moves, both rallies and dips, start and finish much quicker (duh, obviously). It all depends on the market, risk tolerance and how small/big a scalp they want.

If you're a DMX investor then the daily chart is fine and should be all you need. If you're a trader, then 30min.

Today's interday move from 7.25 to 8.50 was very strong. I saw the SI daytraders go after DMX when it appeared ready for the move. The after hour trades is very encouraging too.
FA: people expected a NR today and didn't get it. Therefore the dip. The move is over, people will now focus on either Tuesday (second highest probability for next NR) or setting up expectations for a NR next Monday. Therefore the waves. Needless to say, news of a UK distributor is expected. Given the power of this move, people are expecting a NR sooner than later.

FA wise, each day is another day closer to UK distributor news.

FA, if the markets don't get a NR by Christmas, I'd say this move started by UK final will be over.

TA and FA, everything bodes well for another advance tomorrow.

Given todays action, I will stick my neck out and say we completed waves 1 and 2 of 1. This is the snapshot at this time. For a calculation, depending on where this move started (I've made it simple and picked 4.00), the next wave 3 should peak at about 14.53. But if you ever watched a blow by blow EW commentary before, you'll find new predictions by the day as daily events change. So beware. I'm just having some fun here.

Hoping everyone is still dancing. I am. I hope the Chief is doing his infamous dance, and having fun at it.