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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (80723)	12/4/2000 5:35:47 PM
From: excardog	Respond to of 95453

API Sneak Preview: Crude, Gasoline, Distillates and Runs Higher Dec. 4-MAR-- By John Troland, BridgeNews Houston--Dec. 4--Inventories of crude oil are expected to have risen 1.0 to 1.4 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks are expected to have also increased 1.6 to 2.0 million barrels, according to brokers and analysts. Distillate fuels are expected to have risen 0.3 to 0.6 million barrels, while refinery runs are seen higher by 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points of capacity. * * * American Petroleum Institute data are due out after 1600 ET Tuesday, while U.S. Department of Energy data are due at 0900 ET Wednesday. Following are expectations for inventories for the week ended Dec. 1. The ranges reflect the average of the most popular forecasts gathered from brokers and analysts. Forecast change Previous week (ended Nov. 24) --------------- --------------------------- Crude oil Up 1.0-1.4 mln bbls 292.474 million barrels Gasoline Up 1.6-2.0 mln bbls 193.493 million barrels Distillates Up 0.3-0.6 mln bbls 116.844 million barrels Refineries Up 0.3-0.7% point 91.8% of capacity CRUDE: Most analysts surveyed said they expect crude stockpiles to rise as continued supplies of Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude replaces foreign imports. The majority of analysts surveyed said that they expect imports to remain in the 8.0 to 8.3 million bpd level as the cost of these barrels is postponed until the buyer replaces them from August through December of 2001. "The last few week's API data hasn't made much sense from a balancing sense," one broker said, "as SPR crude is making its way to refiners." "However, with runs expected to ratchet back up a little I don't think we'll see as much of an influence from SPR crude deliveries," he added. Estimates ranged from a build of 2.5 million barrels to a decline of 1.7 million barrels. GASOLINE All analysts surveyed projected that stockpiles would rise by 1.6-2.0 million barrels. The majority of analysts suggested that while implied demand would likely rise 200,000-300,000 bpd from the previous week's 8.5 million bpd level, it would be more than offset by a rise in production from last week's 8.1 million bpd level. One source suggested that as a number of gasoline producing units were back on stream after Autumn maintenance, gasoline output could possibly rise to near 8.5-8.6 million bpd. The increases expected by analysts ranged from 1.0-3.5 million barrels. DISTILLATES: Analysts said they expected distillate fuel inventories to rise by a slight 0.3-0.6 million barrels as implied demand is expected to rise 200,000-300,000 bpd from the previous week's 3.8 million-bpd level. However, imports are expected to fall about 100,000 bpd from the previous week's nearly 400,000-bpd level. Distillate estimates ranged from 1.1 million barrels lower to 1.4 million barrels higher. REFINERIES: Refinery runs are expected to rise 0.3-0.7 percentage points, reversing a nearly four-week trend of lower runs. "Most of the Autumn maintenance is completed and runs should rise slowly," one analyst said. However, a few of the analysts suggested that with refinery margins beginning to turn down from previous high levels, some refiners are unlikely to increase their runs incrementally. "Even with falling refinery margins, we need to push runs up if we expect to meet projected demand for finished products," a cash product broker said. Estimates for refinery runs were for a 0.4 decrease to an increase of 1.5 points. End