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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (40431)	12/4/2000 6:15:47 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Eugene, Market didnt tank after re-liquification by AG in Fall 1998. He speaks tomorrow althought I do not know the venue. I believe we already have,in effect, neutral stance now. Bill Seidman on Friday said he wouldnt be surprised at all by a cut at December meeting. AG might want to telegraph that neutral stance and/or potential rate decline, to get the shoppers out to the mall. That's where the battle against recession will first be fought. We then need an immediate middle class, demand side tax cut and then a general rate cut. We have to lose the fixation on the surplus, certainly for this year. Spend it now with tax cuts and critical programs. Get back to debt reduction when the economy is healthy again. Gridlock and surplus worked for the past couple of years but could spell disaster if it prevents fiscal remedies on the demand side. Mike

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (40431)	12/4/2000 7:42:30 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The discussion re: the economy here seems to be based on a false premise. I think we all need to be reminded that the DJIA is only 5-10% from its all time high and that there are some big sectors, such as the pharmas (containing numerous large capitalization stocks), which are reaching new highs on a daily business. Yes the economy is slowing...but it certainly is not inconceivable that the technology sector is in a recession and the rest of the economy is O.K. In fact, after the run technology has had over the past 5 years, this should be perceived as 'normal' rather than as an anomaly. Thus the fed will not and should not consider changing their policy whatsoever...since a significant fraction of the economy is actually is good shape and the technology sector simply need to rid itself of many years of excess. People on this thread act if the ENTIRE U.S. economy is dependent upon technology. Don't we need to question this premise? If technology is in recession...is the economy NECESSARILY in recession??? The current divergence of the NASDAQ and the DJIA would seem to produce a resounding NO!! to that question. And if the economy is not tanking - just slowing - then a significant change in fed policy is definitely not a foregone conclusion.