To: MikeM54321 who wrote (9493 ) 12/13/2000 3:30:49 PM From: MikeM54321 Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12823 Re: Digital TV - STB Stats "A worldwide conversion from traditional analog broadcasts to digitally-encoded transmissions is powering the digital set-top box market to become a $21 billion market by 2005. The global installed base of digital set-top boxes will increase from 44 million in 1999 to 339 million boxes by 2005." Thread- When I first read the number $21 billion , I didn't think it was realistic. But a quick back of the envelope calculation shows it might be possible. Assumming $300 would be the price the MSO pays for a STB. If 44 million were sold in 1999, it would appear to be realistic to expect 70 million to be sold in 2005. $21 billion/$300 per STB = 70,000,000 STBs. Now consider there are about 1 billion TV housesholds worldwide. Of those, 256 million are cable. IMHO, I would say there will be a big push to convert those to digital cable. And the remaining are either broadcast or DBS subscribers. Mainly broadcast. I would assume a large percentage of those broadcast customers will eventually be converted to DBS customers(which requires a STB). So the bottom line is, IMVHO the $21 billion figure does appear to be realistic. -MikeM(From Florida) PS For those that don't know BRCM is number one in STB silicon. STM is number two. And CUBE is three. As far as STB vendors, MOT is number one(due to it's General Instruments buyout)....and I forget who is two and three. Probably SFA is number two but I can't quite remember. ___________________Despite Rapid Growth, Digital Set Top Box Market Still In Infancy Says Allied Business Intelligence OYSTER BAY, N.Y., Dec. 12-- A worldwide conversion from traditional analog broadcasts to digitally-encoded transmissions is powering the digital set-top box market to become a $21 billion market by 2005. The global installed base of digital set-top boxes will increase from 44 million in 1999 to 339 million boxes by 2005. The key catalyst for growth will be the use of digital set-top boxes by both satellite and cable operators . This is according to Allied Business Intelligence's (ABI) report ``Digital Set-Top Boxes: World Markets, Architectures and Vendors.'' The report discusses the shift toward digital set-top boxes across satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms. These platforms are further segmented on a geographical basis. ``The massive growth in digital set-top box shipments is occurring at the same time as the set-top box is evolving beyond being a simple television transmission receiver,'' said ABI analyst Joshua Wise, the author of the report. ``With expanded feature sets, newer generations of digital set-top boxes are at the epicenter of the convergence between the entertainment, computing and broadband industries.'' The first wave of digital set-top box deployments came largely in the DBS field. At the end of 1999, 76% of all digital set-top boxes deployed serviced DBS subscribers. DBS providers are expected to continue to expand their digital subscriber base significantly with North America alone accounting for over 26 million customers by 2005. The second wave of digital set-top boxes, which is already under way, is highlighted by the impact of digital cable service and the increased emphasis on advanced ``thick client'' features. By 2005 the cable platform will account for 40% of the total worldwide installed base of digital set-top boxes and should have begun to outsell boxes based on the satellite platform. Meaningful impact from terrestrial digital television (DTV), the third major broadcast platform, on the sales of digital decoder boxes will be delayed until 2003 onward, by which time more countries will have begun DTV broadcasts. DTV transmissions have been delayed by standards wrangling, most notably in the US. Nevertheless, with over 100 US stations already broadcasting some DTV content, the terrestrial platform represents untapped potential.biz.yahoo.com