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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (432)	12/8/2000 12:01:37 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12410

Raymond, Please excuse the wait for an answer..., but one of your links contained 66 pages. <smile> The nation celebrated Dec 7th yesterday, and the contrast between 1941 and 2001 mirrors the many differences in our world. One of the deepest changes is in banking and the international monetary systems with the challenges of electronic money. The Economist article is excellent, and goes right to the heart of the international banking consolidations and the potential for conflict. How these consolidations in our international structures play out is of major importance. "The sheer volume of high-yield debt is causing spreads over Treasuries to soar. But so, ominously, is the draining of liquidity from the market, which has never really recovered from the drought caused by LTCM. Two things are mostly to blame. The first is that there are fewer investment banks. Now that Credit Suisse has bought DLJ, UBS has snaffled up PaineWebber, and Chase is acquiring J.P. Morgan, the number of banks willing to take risky positions, particularly as middlemen, has fallen sharply. As yet, nobody has entered the market to fill this risky, but potentially lucrative, space. " To banking..., one can add consolidations in oil, natural gas, telecommunications, food, drugs, electric utilities, and anything else that shadows an asset this world cannot do without. These cartels are the cornerstones for a whole new system of integrating this world. I personally don't like monopolies, and believe these powerful companies will produce a level of problems never seen before, more problematic then any Henry Ford or JP Morgan could have conceived. They may eventually control debt and bond prices all over the world, and remove some of the control from the central banks. The other significant development evolving all over the world, will be demographic complications, creating problems...., both ecologically and economically. But on the "Sunny Side" as the boomers dry up, literally, these large corporations will need new markets and they'll have to develop those markets themselves, by funding undeveloped areas of the world to maintain consumption levels. For next year, I'm anticipating a continued mild slow down, all over the world, with their respective markets going sideways in a broad band. Japan will remain weak and depressed, but I don't expect the worlds rapid growth taking place around us from the scientific revolution, to be shelved just yet..., prosperity will remain for at least another 35 years. There will not be a crash and/or international depression, nor a cyclical end of this USA Bull Market. It's possible however, that the highs for the DJIA and more likely the Nasdaq are in and will remain there for a number of months. My intuitive grasp and opinion of the charts suggests: "Consolidation" NOT "Major Recession or Depression."