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To: Boplicity who wrote (7212)	12/5/2000 12:11:52 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

<<I'm changing my bearish stance to neutral today, or bull in waiting. I'm seeing real fear now, amateurs talking about shorting, and more bears then I have seen in sometime. Even some of the biggest of the bulls are worried now.>> Greg this bear talk bothers me as well, but hell, I have been promoting it so what should I expect. Would hate to become a bear right at the bottom. No use in that at all. However, I still think I disagree. Talk of selling and selling are two different things. Talks of shorting and doing it are also two differnet things. The Put/call ratio never did hit extreme, and unlike the past, the average investor is probably more educated. What is the general public doing and thinking? So I am confused but until proven wrong I will prefer the short side..... here are my reasons for 1900! =============================================== Economy is slowing. The Fed over tightened. We have been and will likely continue to see earnings scares. The first year of a president’s term is the most likely one for a market crash cause it gives him 3 more years to straighten it out. The dollar is dropping. Price of imports (on which we are too dependent) will rise. This is bad for retail markets as well as inflationary. We are likely headed for a recession. People will stop buying things. Companies will hold off expenditures of purchases like PCs for as long as they can. There really is no over-riding “business” reason for companies to upgrade to the latest and greatest P4. Telecommunication companies are holding back purchases of new fiber lines. The old gorillas are dying. Chips have peaked. There will be new leaders, but the old ones will die hard and we do not yet know who the new market leaders are. We have not seen the panic selling and pessimism that usually accompanies a bottom. There have been articles on the big bad bear, but the end will not be at hand until it starts making magazine covers. The price of gold has not shot up like it usually does in times of fear and extreme pessimism. The put/call ratio (another indicator of fear and panic has not yet reached 1). The market still is reacting to bad news. Hell, it is still reacting poorly to supposedly good news. BRCD, for example, initially fell after beating the earnings estimates by 2 cents. When the market no longer reacts to bad news the bottom will be in. Too many people think that the worst is over and are counting on a yearend rally to get them out of a hole. Too many people are still going on margin, and margin debt is increasing. Fund redemptions. Housing is slowing. With it, carpet sales will slow, appliance sales will slow, furniture sales will slow, etc etc etc. MOST IMPORTANT: In spite of how far stocks have fallen, market evaluations and PE’s are still at unbelievably high levels. Take my favorite example (JNPR). It has revenues of $378M (for 9 months) and a market cap of $41B. Is this really rational? Until rational valuations are place on stocks, they will continue to fall, interspersed with bear market rallies. 1900 here we come. (First we have to suffer thru a Bush rally, and possibly a year-end rally as well). This should trap most everybody back in at the wrong time. Dec rally perhaps but that is about it. Not even sure this rally will last more that 1 1/2 days. If they gap this up too damn much it could even fail tomorrow (but I doubt it). Hell please get JNPR to 180 again. I will not blow another chance to short at that level I assure you. COMMENTS PLEASE. Greg, Freeus, Horsegirl, anyone?

To: Boplicity who wrote (7212)	12/5/2000 5:52:19 AM
From: horsegirl48	Respond to of 13572

Greg I feel after the excitement of the election is over we still have the earnings warnings to get thru. Even if he softens it will take time to heal what is happening out there, it wont happen overnight. This is affecting every type of business. I went to get my nails done the other day at Matio Truccio? and the nail tech is working 6 days a week just to make end meet because business is so slow ( usually big salons r busy before the holidays), and again where my sister works Saks, in 20 years they have never seen a Xmas this bleak. I personally dont think its over, just a bear rally... HG48

To: Boplicity who wrote (7212)	12/5/2000 12:57:17 PM
From: Olu Emuleomo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Greg, It's nice to see green once again. Been to the valley of death and back; with stocks like NTAP! I cant believe how much money I lost here. My fault. I should have cut my loss @ 15-20% like I usually do. Hope I can recoup some of my cash in this one. I am watching QCOM real close. I believe it wants to explode to the upside. The Nasdaq should rally to 3200. It's behaviour there will tell us if this is just a bear mkt rally. --Olu E.