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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeet Shipman who wrote (49554)	12/5/2000 1:49:32 AM
From: PMG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

LOL ... and all because judges can't count;-) but if this reverse logic really applies we go down today. The only think that really confuses me is that MSDW says the market's heading in to problems (bullish?). "Clear thinking", however, should keep AG keep from removing his bias because if inflation is really on his agenda the anticipation of a rate cut would lower the $ further and thus a) spur inflation by higher import prices b) add growth via exports Further it would c) pump liquiditiy in a negative savings environment d) increase the bubble in the real estate market The difference to 1998 is that there is no officially recognized liquidity crisis so far that calls for LTCM-style emergency actions.

To: Skeet Shipman who wrote (49554)	12/5/2000 6:26:42 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Uh oh... read this commentary I put together based on a review of market indicators, Skeet: In the last 100 weeks: The computer box makers have tripled through June of 2000 and then fallen back below where they started! While advertising increased by fits and starts slightly, it has also fallen back to prior levels. Both DOW and NAZ have increased 10% or so... an average of 5% (can get better returns from interest bearing cash accounts with safety) The Goldman-Sachs Commodity Price Index (GNX - not to be confused with the Biotech) has almost doubled. In summary, inflation as represented at the basic raw material level has doubled, advertising is back to prior levels after tripling and one good indication of tech health, the box makers, is back below 2 year ago levels! Put this on top of an overblown market and you have all markets reaching back to levels seen 2 years ago. So I don't necessarily agree with the soft landing the Feds think we are headed for!