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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2923)	12/5/2000 12:27:20 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Here was my buy NG thinking back on Saturday Oct 28th.. Jan NG bottomed the following tuesday. Message 14679915 my stop loss points were not well thought out, (and in truth they were just off of the top of my head, as I was working on other matters, although we had been in NG exclusively on the long side several times earlier in the year) DVN is right at it's key support at it's 200 dma and more importantly the nearby Natural gas contract pullback to a low of 4.59 on the nearby contract on friday and closed higher than that. 4.60 is the Key longterm breakout area for the past 10 year it had acted as major resistance all year and in previous years, before we broke above it a few months ago. If I get a chance I'll make 2 charts tomorrow to show this but, it's pretty easy to see. This area on the NGas futures is actually the low risk buying area, to go long with a stop say @ 4.47 or 4.39. depending on the mid-east and the weather we could see a run back up to the 5.50 area or even the 6.75 area basis the nearby Natural Gas futures between now and Jan. DVN was upgraded to a strong buy on friday by I think CSFB due to these factors I'm sure. Their target is 80. one key point is that Natural Gas was able to go enough points below the 4.60 previous all time high to get Longs to believe that the market had broken down. This Type of Penetration of support resistance levels by commercials to blow out the novice-intermediate and some advanced technical traders has become a signature of our markets it seems. and it makes sense for large traders,hedge funds and commercials to be using these tactics. John