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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Cave who wrote (80763)	12/5/2000 10:26:26 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

jon; land drillers look very strong here but near their highs... While they are the "street's" fav' way to play the Nat Gas story outside of the E&P's - I like the "bounce-ability" in the offshore drillers - we agree on MRL; it should bounce like a super ball to $24-$25 here - the EASIEST no-brainer "chip-shot" trade I see; hopefully a very quick & easy 20-25%. I added ESV RDC & MRL , I've got some ATW allready, some old PTEN. - PKD & KEG could be nice movers; GLBL is, was and will allways be a great trader - gotta get some here; $10-$12 on the initial bounce & $10-$14 if the move lasts 10+ days for GLBL imo... 1/3rd of what I just bought was MRL - they are still the single most eps leveraged offshore/GOM leveraged driller to dayrate moves. MRL has moved hard & fast off $20-22 and I like it as the "risk vs reward" play here... I've had a good feel for the MRL tape - I tend to like to trade what I feel - I've had a good feel for tapewise of late... But; I don't see enough "Stickability" in the broad market for us to go to new highs in the Oilpatch. Still too many unanswered questions... how soft is the US Economy going to land, what will earnings be in Q4, Q1 reporting ? Valuation multiple still way, way too high in tech etc. I'm in for hopefully just 1/2 to 2/3rds of this "potential" relief rally move here... and look to be just "in & out". I still think the little sweetspot will be what is now a near annual March to May Oilpatch Rally in a few months; hopefully then - we'll have more economic stats under our belt, the Xmas season will be a known, Q4 will be reported & Q1 will be underway enough to know "how soft is soft" in the broader market... I think the NAZ & the broad market may not actually see it's final downward move untill next summer - with the NAZ going sub 2000; I just hope we get that March-May window for the Oilpatch in under the NAZ crash wire... I actually flipped some XAU/Golds yesterday - continually taking some breakout leader profits & rotating to laggards... profit taking some HM NEM & added some small cap laggards... but; still only 30% Oil's, 35% Gold's and 35% cash - closed all shorts. The BTK on a relief rally of Gore not being elected will turn into a great shorting opp on the next major NAZ rally... I'll sit and patiently wait for the next time the NAZ reaches 3000, even if its months from now & the BTK outperforms; then it's a primary short once again - for that final downward NAZ run to 2000 imo.

To: Jon Cave who wrote (80763)	12/5/2000 10:41:42 AM
From: dsindakota	Respond to of 95453

Wild times in the NG market...Phil Flynn: Tuesday 12-5-00 Trump card! The Clinton Administration gleefully asserts that Iraq has played its best card and they have trumped it! Be careful because danger looms as the air of over confidence could be dashed in the weeks ahead. Natural gas flew to record highs with panic buying shutting down trading for a time. Heating oil soared as winter rolls in but crude and unleaded faltered. The API releases its estimates tonight and tight supplies will fuel the fear even further. All the cards are on the table for all to see and prices should move higher as the winter winds approach. Tough negotiations between Iraq and the UN kept crude prices under wraps yesterday. One of the proposals by Iraq was not to allow its oil to be sold to any of Iraq’s enemies and that is the US, Japan and Britain. They are not interested in market share apparently. The US imports roughly 7% of its oil from Iraq. They are still pumping oil but not allowing any to be shipped out of the country and will not until Iraq and the UN agree on an oil price formula for December. The Iraqi’s want an extra 50 cents per barrel for their oil. The fact that the market is turning a blind eye to the situation is a little disconcerting and we could see spikes if the situation is not resolved soon. One market that was in denial over the supply/demand situation is the natural gas market. It snapped back to reality in a hurry yesterday with as an intense wave of earlier than normal cold air swept into Chicago last night. This cold air brought an incredible wave of panic buying and the orders were so intense and overwhelming that it shut the market down for a time. The system got caught up in this tiny pit and the traders caught their collective breaths and after all the shouting was done, the market was up 11% to a new all time high of 7950 and settled the day at 7433. All of this due to extreme, early cold weather and tight supplies. No one is willing to release too much supply this early in the season as there are very real fears that with the supplies so tight we’ll run out before the heating season has ended. Chicago is the biggest users of natural gas for heating. Heating oil got in on the act as the cold will sweep east where most homes are heated with heating oil and supplies are tight there as well. It’s possible we’ll see another spike in natural gas prices up to the 8000 area. There’s little doubt we’ll see profit taking set backs as the season wears on and hope to maintain closes above the 6800 area. A close above the 8200 area would be very favorable and we’re likely to see it eventually as the season has just begun. The breaks in the market could be huge considering the rally we’ve had. These breaks will - no doubt - be profit taking as there is little hope the supply situation will improve much and the weather is the wild card. Depending on when and why and by how much, these breaks will be a buying opportunity. The bull has horns and profit taking washouts can be just as severe. It’s a wild, TINY market. Be careful. The API tonight could excite the crude market. Estimates call for crude to be up 1.0-1.4 mil brls. Distillates up 0.3-0.6 mil brls. Unleaded up 1.6-2.0 mil brls It’s been an interesting civics lesson. Every vote counts but the abstentions may speak the loudest. Hugo Chavez won an election to oust what he called corrupt labor leaders. Yet the turnout for the vote was a tiny 20%. Perhaps the majority are tiring of his revolution. Perhaps the duet he sung with Fidel Castro on public radio was the beginning of the end. Maybe Mr. Chavez should rethink the way he tries to win over the MTV generation. Yassar Arafat is packing heat?! He was carrying a pistol as he reviewed his military yesterday and is an ominous sign. Peace is a long way off in the Mideast. It’s wild! Stay in touch with me and open your account now! I’m Phil Flynn and you can reach me at 800.935.6487. There are a lot of you reading every day. Let’s talk face to face! We were stopped on our jan crude position with an apprx 50 pt loss. Buy jan crude at 3120 with a 50 pt stop. Buy jan heating oil at 9950 with a 200 pt stop. We were stopped on jan unleaded with an apprx 100 pt stop. Buy jan unleaded at 7990 with a 200 pt stop. Be careful and have a GREAT day.