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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2936)	12/5/2000 5:09:42 PM
From: da_cheif™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

chip...the eipicenter of primary wave three is called the recognition wave....its called that because it is so fast and furious that it convinces all the professional bears who have hated the stock market to finally admit to the bull market...now todays action doesnt qualify but its a start...by axiom the epicenter has at least one day up that exceeds in percentage terms the one day slide of the prior second wave...which in this case was the 20 percent one day slide in 1987....of course we expect the dow to have a one day move of over 20 percent to mark that event...being the epicenter would mark the half way point of the bull market that began in 1974....thanks...

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2936)	12/6/2000 9:08:17 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi Chip,Thanks for the kind words >>when the epicenter of primary wave three comes along (known as the recognition wave)<< Don is talking about in E-Wave terms a "third of a third of a third" What these phrases are said to mean is that a point is reached in Market psychology, where most or nearly all of the professional traders and investors, as well as the public at large has an idea that a given market is a bull market and instead of this being a top, this mass realization propels prices significantly higher. In a bear market, the opposite happens most people will be bearish but prices go lower. Now 3rd waves within 3rd waves or the "center" center of a price move depends on the degree or size of the wave or cycle. If we were to look at the price of Crude in the early 1970's it was around $3 and had been stable, the price of crude engaged in a decade long advance that took it up to 40 dollars a barrel by 1980. the third wave would have occurred in the middle of the decade long advance. Since Elliot wave is a mathematically based theory of Mass Psychology and how it is reflected in price patterns found in nature and in areas such as the financial markets, lets think about the crude bull market of the 1970's in psychological terms. Think about the early Carter years: We had people waiting in line for hours for Gasoline for their cars and the President telling us that Americans had to realize they were living in an "era of reduced expectations" Yet this widespread concern and fear that we were running out of fossil fuel did not market the top back in 1977. It was more of in the middle of the advance. Don is talking about some very big picture ideas that are being debated widely in certain circles. Just look at the cover story of Barron's with Fra Luca Paciolini, a couple of weeks ago, the key question being debated is where book value and other valuation metrics, undervalues Intellectual property, the companies driving the Information age and especially the "consensus reality" and mindset that companies and their base of employees share. a few companies such CSCO, GE, SUNW, C come to mind. GE is a great example, a senior GE exec goes to MMM and the stock has a major price move, HD Appoints Nardelli to the position of CEO, and HD gets a boost. Do you read the Timers Digest online or the dead tree version? John